In March, 4 out of every 10 apartment sale transactions nationwide were upward transactions. The share of upward transactions fell from February.
ZIGBANG CO. analyzed apartment sale actual transaction price data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and found that in March, upward transactions accounted for 44.5% of nationwide apartment sale transactions. That was down 3.5 percentage points (p) from the previous month (48.0%). Flat transactions were 13.3%, and downward transactions were 42.1%, showing that the upward tilt that had continued through the previous month eased somewhat in March. Nationwide apartment sale transaction volume also fell from 38,602 in Feb. to 30,325 in March, indicating that the overall heat of transactions in the market cooled somewhat.
In the Seoul metropolitan area (Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon), the share of upward transactions fell from 50.5% in Feb. to 44.0% in March, down 6.5 percentage points. The share of downward transactions also rose from 34.7% to 40.4%, up 5.7 percentage points, indicating a shift in the transaction structure.
In Seoul, the share of upward transactions fell from 59.0% in Feb. to 51.4% in March, down 7.6 percentage points. On a monthly basis, that was the steepest drop since Nov. 2023 (47.4%→39.4%, down 7.9 percentage points), and in absolute terms, it was also the lowest share of upward transactions since 48.1% in Aug. last year.
Notably, in the Gangnam area (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa), the share of upward transactions fell from 61.2% in Feb. to 50.0% in March, down 11.2 percentage points, marking the lowest share since 48.1% in Aug. last year. This appears to reflect the combined effect of heavier tax burdens due to higher officially assessed values ahead of the imposition of property holding taxes in May and an increase in listings from multiple-home owners before the end of the capital gains tax surcharge deferral. Such moves are being detected in part, especially in Gangnam, where high-priced apartments make up a large share.
In non-Gangnam districts (autonomous districts other than Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa), the share of upward transactions fell from 58.8% in Feb. to 51.5% in March, down 7.3 percentage points. As in Gangnam, the share of upward transactions declined, but the drop was relatively limited compared with Gangnam (-11.2 percentage points). The share of downward transactions also rose from 27.3% to 31.5%, up 4.3 percentage points, a smaller increase than in Gangnam (25.2%→35.5%, +10.3 percentage points). Compared with Gangnam, a relatively higher share of apartment complexes in non-Gangnam areas are priced to allow the use of mortgage loan financing. As such, the transactions are interpreted as end-users making purchases aligned with their funding conditions and housing stability needs, while comprehensively considering the potential for future changes in the housing loan environment.
In Gyeonggi, the share of upward transactions fell from 47.5% in Feb. to 42.9% in March, down 4.6 percentage points, and in Incheon, it fell from 46.3% in Feb. to 40.2% in March, down 6.1 percentage points. In the provinces, the share of upward transactions fell from 45.6% in Feb. to 44.9% in March, down 0.7 percentage point, a relatively stable trend compared with the Seoul metropolitan area. The share of downward transactions also inched up from 42.5% to 43.4%, but the increase was limited compared with the metropolitan area (+5.7%).