With the end of the capital gains tax surcharge deferral for multiple-home owners on May 9 approaching, the March apartment presale outlook index in Seoul was shown to have declined by the largest margin in the greater Seoul area. Gyeonggi Province, by contrast, was projected to rise slightly.
According to a survey the Korea Housing Institute conducted of dwelling business operators from the 19th to the 27th of last month, the nationwide apartment presale outlook index for March was 96.3, down 1.8 points (p) from the previous month. During the same period, the greater Seoul area fell 2.2p from 104.8 to 102.6, and areas outside the greater Seoul area also went down 1.6p from 96.6 to 95.0.
In particular, in the greater Seoul area, Seoul fell by 6.5p, the largest drop. This is seen as reflecting the impact of a confirmed end to the capital gains tax surcharge deferral for multiple-home owners on May 9, which has increased listings by multiple-home owners centered on the three Gangnam districts in Seoul and kept buyers on the sidelines. Incheon fell 3.4p from 100.0 to 96.6.
However, Gyeonggi Province was projected to rise slightly. The Korea Housing Institute said, "With recent moves to tighten taxes on multiple-home owners and high-priced dwellings, and the stricter lending rules for homes priced at 1.5 billion won or more, transactions are increasing in Gyeonggi, where there are many dwellings priced below 1.5 billion won, and home prices continue to trend higher as a result."
Outside the greater Seoul area, South Gyeongsang was projected to rise 6.2p (93.8→100.0), South Chungcheong 5.4p (87.5→92.9), and North Gyeongsang 4.7p (88.2→92.9), while South Jeolla was projected to fall 9.0p (92.3→83.3), Sejong 7.1p (121.4→114.3), Jeju 5.8p (94.7→88.9), Daejeon 5.6p (105.6→100.0), Busan 4.8p (100.0→95.2), Gwangju 4.5p (95.0→90.5), North Jeolla 1.1p (85.7→84.6), and North Chungcheong 0.9p (90.9→90.0). Daegu (100.0), Ulsan (105.9), and Gangwon (91.7) were projected to be the same as the previous month.
The March presale price outlook index recorded 107.6, down 2.1p from the previous month. The Korea Housing Institute said, "As construction starts decrease, demand for construction raw materials is declining, which appears to have somewhat slowed the upward trend in presale prices," while adding, "However, if tensions between the United States and Iran drag on, higher oil prices and raw material costs could push presale prices back up, so it will be necessary to keep watching how changes in international affairs affect presale prices."
During the same period, the presale volume outlook index was tallied at 95.5, down 3.1p from the previous month. This is seen as reflecting business operators adjusting or watching their presale schedules as buyer sentiment weakens ahead of the end of the capital gains tax surcharge deferral.
The unsold inventory outlook index fell 6.4p from 93.2 to 86.8. This appears to reflect the perception that, with new supply declining sharply—new private apartment presales in 2025 are projected at 116,000 units, down 23.8% from the previous year to the lowest level since 2016—rising jeonse prices due to fewer move-ins could, in some regions, help reduce unsold inventory to some extent.