A subscription market that had overheated on the hunt for capital gains is being reshaped around end users. With sales prices rising on higher construction costs and housing-market regulations tightening, even in the Seoul metropolitan area, places without sufficient upside for home prices can no longer expect a "lottery subscription." As lending thresholds have also risen, complexes priced over 1.5 billion won or with insufficient loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are even seeing undersubscription.
According to Subscription Home and the sales industry on the 6th, the special-supply sale for "Guri Station Hi-Nity River Park," being built in Sutaek-dong, Guri, Gyeonggi, drew 1,800 applicants for 824 homes. The average subscription competition rate was 2.18 to 1.
Guri Station Hi-Nity River Park is a complex created through the Sutaek E Zone dwellings redevelopment and maintenance project, with 26 buildings (four complexes), from six floors underground to up to 35 floors above ground, totaling 3,022 homes. DL E&C, GS Engineering & Construction, and SK ecoplant are co-building it, with move-in slated for Dec. 2029.
In the special supply for exclusive-use areas from 29 to 84 square meters conducted at this complex, applications exceeded the supply. However, for the 110-square-meter exclusive type, eight homes were allocated for special supply, but only three applications were filed.
The first-priority subscription held on the 4th showed a similar trend. With 2,933 applicants for 749 general-supply homes, the average competition rate was 3.9 to 1. But the 29-square-meter and 110-square-meter exclusive types were undersubscribed. For the 110-square-meter exclusive general supply, there were 56 homes, but only 33 applicants combined from first-priority local and other areas. The competition rate was 0.59 to 1.
The sluggish subscription competition for the 110-square-meter exclusive type appears to reflect the heavy burden on end users, as the sales price was set in the 1.7 to 1.8 billion won range. While Guri was not designated a regulated area under the Oct. 15 measures last year, loan regulations under the June 27 measures apply. For apartments priced at 1.5 billion won or less, loans are available up to 600 million won, but for those priced over 1.5 billion won, the loan limit is capped at 400 million won. Applying for the 110-square-meter exclusive type would require mobilizing at least 1.2 to 1.3 billion won in cash, making it difficult for end users without substantial capital. As a result, end users appear to have applied for dwelling sizes that are relatively easier to access.
The detailed sales prices by exclusive-use size are: ▲29㎡ 453.1 million to 491.2 million won ▲38㎡ 677.6 million to 713.8 million won ▲44㎡ 788.6 million to 812.7 million won ▲59㎡A 959.9 million to 1.0198 billion won ▲59㎡B 972.2 million to 1.0427 billion won ▲59㎡C 935.1 million to 1.0136 billion won ▲77㎡ 1.1788 billion to 1.2414 billion won ▲84㎡ 1.2835 billion to 1.3507 billion won ▲110㎡ 1.7277 billion to 1.8365 billion won.
Not only in Guri but also in Bundang District, Seongnam, and Suji District, Yongin, subscription popularity is cooling. "The Sharp Bundang Centro" recorded a high 51.3 to 1 competition rate during the first-priority subscription, but 60% of winners gave up their contracts, prompting a non-priority subscription round. The market assessed that the high sales prices led many to forgo contracts. The top sales price for the 84-square-meter exclusive type here reached the 2.1 billion won range.
"Suji Xi Edition" in Pungdeokcheon-dong, Suji District, Yongin, also failed to sell out, as only 143 people applied for 214 homes in a non-priority subscription held on the 23rd of last month. This complex likewise set the 84-square-meter exclusive sales price at the high 1.5 billion won range compared with nearby complexes.
Park Ji-min, head of Wolyong Subscription Research Institute, said, "Recent sales have been priced excessively," adding, "In particular, in Guri, the national standard size has not yet reached 1.5 billion won, but the 110-square-meter exclusive type is in the 1.7 to 1.8 billion won range, so you can buy other existing complexes more cheaply." Park added, "In Bundang as well, the fact that new builds are priced higher than apartments in central areas such as the pilot districts likely affected the (drop in competition rates)."
The market expects that as the government's pressure on the real estate market intensifies and loan regulations persist, clear sorting by price and location will take hold in subscriptions. An industry official said, "With expectations for home-price gains cooling and loans hard to get, there won't be many end users who can shoulder high sales prices in hopes of a lottery subscription as before," adding, "For the time being, demand in the sales market may vary by location and price."