Performance improved but the price was frozen, and the MacBook sold out as soon as it hit the market recently. It's the same with real estate. Don't wait for prices to fall; you should actively buy Seoul apartments the way you would buy a MacBook.
On the 3rd at a cafe in Jamsil-dong, Songpa District, Seoul, Park Min-su (pen name Genesis Park), head of The Smart Company and a content creator specializing in real estate taxes, said Seoul's real estate market will continue to rise this year and urged buyers to purchase as early as possible. He especially likened the recent "MacBook frenzy," which drew attention, to the Seoul apartment market.
Park said Seoul apartment prices will rise more than 5% this year and predicted that the "leveling up" trend among mid-to-upper-tier areas such as Gangdong, Dongdaemun and Seodaemun will become more pronounced.
Park traced the cause of the severe polarization and the lockup of listings in today's real estate market to a "patchwork tax system." He warned that the government's announced supply measures are instead stoking market anxiety.
Park said, "The government keeps urging multi-homeowners to sell, but it has effectively put a lock on the door so listings can't come to market," and added, "Caught in the trap of higher acquisition taxes, the market has already become addicted to the 'one smart home' as the 'new normal.'"
Park is an investment expert who transformed from an ordinary office worker into a content creator in real estate taxes. He provides a range of real estate investment content through channels such as the YouTube channel Genesis Park (210,000 subscribers). Defining the current real estate market as one "ruled by learned psychology," Park advised that people should go with the market flow rather than the government's supply measures. The following is a Q&A with Park.
- How would you assess the government's Jan. 29 supply measures?
"They don't deserve a good score. Supplying 10,000 homes on the Yongsan maintenance depot site and allocating a significant number of them to rentals undermines the city's competitiveness. Putting public rentals on a prime site that should host a world-class international business district is a national waste. In particular, the plan to allow the Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport to directly designate redevelopment zones infringes on local governments' permitting authority, will only spark internal conflicts within associations, and will in fact be a shortcut to delaying supply."
- Many potential buyers are wondering whether to buy a home now or wait for supply after 2030.
"Buy now. Think about the 'MacBook frenzy' that blew up on social media (SNS) recently. As component prices rose amid the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, people lined up to buy high-performance products before prices went up. Real estate is the same. Currency is losing value and construction costs are rising, so waiting 3–4 years for uncertain supply carries too high an opportunity expense. I've seen countless cases where trying to save 50 million won ended up erasing 700 million won in asset value. Bottom-ticking is impossible."
- The concentration in Seoul's prime locations is intensifying.
"It's a monster created by policy. The decisive factor was the surtax on acquisition for multi-homeowners introduced in 2020. The moment you buy a second home, the tax jumps to 8%, so people instinctively focus on the 'one most expensive home.' Over the past five years, this learning effect has hardened into the new normal. Investors who used to analyze the entire country now look only at Seoul. People in the provinces also look only at Seoul. That's because a market where things don't sell is meaningless."
- How do you view this year's outlook for home prices in Seoul and the greater metropolitan area? Any regions to watch?
"I think Seoul's sales market will generally rise more than 5%. The increase will be larger in the three Gangnam districts (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa) and the Han River belt, but this year's key theme is 'leveling up in mid-to-upper-tier areas.' If Mapo and Seongdong ran ahead last year, this year buying interest will flock to Gangdong, Dongdaemun and Seodaemun. With loan regulations limiting where people can realistically buy, complexes in the 1.5 billion to 2 billion won range will step up to around 2.5 billion won. Popular complexes like Olympic Park Foreon will usher in an era of 1 billion won per pyeong (3.3 square meters), and the 84-square-meter exclusive units, known as the national standard size, will head toward 4 billion won. In Dongdaemun, Cheongnyangni will lead, with Dapsimni and the Imun–Hwigyeong New Towns heating up."
- Outside Seoul, are there areas in the greater metro region that will show strength?
"It's strictly about Gangnam accessibility and jobs. Among non-regulated areas, Guri, Dasan and Dongtan will be strong, and within regulated areas, Suji in Yongin, which is accessible at around 1 billion won, will show its power. What Guri, Dasan, Suji and Guseongnam have in common is that you can get to Gangnam in about 20 minutes via the Shinbundang Line or Subway Line 8, etc. By contrast, I think momentum is weak for warmth to spread to Nowon–Dobong–Gangbuk (Nodogang) or Geumcheon–Gwanak–Guro (Geumgwangu), because buyers' standards have already risen."
- The government keeps sending a message to multi-homeowners to sell.
"It's different from the past. Those who would sell have already sold, and the rest have turned to gifting. Rather than face a capital gains surtax, they plan to pass homes to their children. When a gift occurs, carryover taxation applies, so listings disappear from the market for 10 years. Policies squeezing multi-homeowners are, paradoxically, deepening the lockup of listings."
Carryover taxation under the gift tax is a system under which, if gifted real estate is sold within 10 years, the acquisition price used to calculate capital gains is based on the price at the time the donor first acquired it, rather than the time it was gifted. It is a device to prevent short-term capital gains tax avoidance through gifting, but in the current market, some say it is causing a 10-year "listing lockup."
- What effect will the government's ongoing tax reform work have on the market?
"It's the biggest variable. If the previous administration threw dozens of 'jabs' of regulation, the current administration appears to be preparing a major upheaval that shakes the tax structure at its core. Integrating the property tax and the comprehensive real estate tax while reducing tax resistance and broadening the tax base seems likely. The plan, which could be announced as early as July, may be quite bold, so homeowners should hold off on overextending, watch, and craft a strategy."
- What is the first thing the government should do to stabilize home prices?
"The government keeps announcing new regulations, and especially tightens loan rules, which strengthens the psychology of 'if not now, never,' making people want to buy more. It seems to be fueling speculative and excess demand. Leaving it to market principles would actually help stabilize things. In practical terms, redevelopment and reconstruction are the only measures that can truly activate housing supply. However, the temporary price increases that occur when new builds go in must be tolerated."
- What is the outlook for real estate markets in the provinces?
"The provinces are thoroughly markets centered on end-user demand driven by supply and demand. It will be hard for long-distance speculative investing to revive as in the past. Because of the acquisition tax surtax, people can only buy one, leaving no room to look to the provinces. However, for those without a home, targeting urgent sales in non-regulated areas of metropolitan cities such as Busan is not a bad choice in terms of defending asset value."