This year, a total of about 21,000 households will be supplied in major reconstruction and redevelopment complexes across Seoul. Of these, general sales will account for about 5,700 households. Analysts said that while fierce competition is expected in Gangnam-area complexes, non-Gangnam areas will likely see a polarization in which subscription competition eases as the burden of funding grows due to tighter subscription and loan regulations.
According to the real estate industry on the 14th, there are 13 major complexes (500 households or more) scheduled for sale in Seoul this year, totaling 21,480 households. Excluding the portion for association members, 5,737 households will be supplied to the general public. This accounts for about 26.7% of the total.
By area, Seocho District's supply is overwhelming. Including THE H Clast, which will rebuild Banpo-dong Banpo Jugong Complex 1 Districts 1, 2 and 4 (5,007 households), and Bangbae Forest Xi, which will rebuild Bangbae-dong Bangbae Districts 13 and 14 (2,296 households), a total of 10,202 households will be supplied across five complexes. General sales will total 2,692 households, meaning about 47% of all general sales are concentrated in Seocho District.
Dongjak District will also see a total of 3,903 households centered on the Heukseok and Noryangjin new towns, including ACRO Riversky, which redevelops Noryangjin New Town District 8 (987 households), THE H Kentro Nine, which redevelops Heukseok New Town District 9 (1,536 households), and Summit The Hill, which redevelops Heukseok New Town District 11 (1,515 households). Of these, 1,143 households are slated for general sale.
In the case of the redevelopment of District 10, the core of Jangwi New Town in Jangwi-dong, Seongbuk District, more than half—1,031 out of a total of 1,931 households—will go to general sale. Among the 13 major subscription complexes in Seoul, this single complex has the largest number of general-sale units.
Bukhansan Mountain Signature Castle, which redevelops Galhyeon District 1 in Galhyeon-dong, Eunpyeong District (4,116 households), does not lag behind Seocho District in terms of complex size, but general sales amount to 555 households, or about 13% of the total supply.
DE'FINE Yeonhui, which redevelops Yeonhui District 1 in Yeonhui-dong, Seodaemun District (959 households), will release about 35% (332 households) for general sale in the subscription market.
Experts cite tighter regulations under the Oct. 15 real estate measures as the biggest variable in Seoul's subscription market this year. As speculative overheating zones have been expanded, subscription eligibility restrictions have been strengthened.
Park Ji-min, head of Wol-yong Subscription Research Institute, said, "The number of Seoul subscribers this year will be cut to about half compared with last year," and noted, "Competition rates will be halved and winning scores will also fall." Park said, "With household-member subscriptions banned and only heads of household allowed to subscribe, inflated figures from duplicate subscriptions will be weeded out," adding, "Those with two or more homes also cannot subscribe, so the overall base naturally shrinks."
Tighter funding conditions are also weighing on Seoul's apartment subscription market. As all of Seoul has been designated a speculative overheating zone, the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is capped at 40%. While bridge loans for interim payments were generally available up to the sixth installment, only up to the fourth installment has been allowed since the Oct. 15 real estate measures were announced.
Park said, "Before the Oct. 15 measures, as long as you had a 10% contract payment, you could get loans for 60% interim payments, so the funding burden was lighter when trying for subscriptions. After the measures, however, you must self-fund 20% out of that 60% interim payment, so you need to hold at least 30% of the sale price in cash," adding, "More people will give up subscriptions due to the funding burden from loan limits."
Park added, "Regardless of the measures, the Gangnam area will have steady demand, but the rest of Seoul will visibly feel the impact of the rule changes," and said, "In particular, among non-Gangnam complexes in Seoul, DE'FINE Yeonhui, where the regulations will first apply after the Oct. 15 measures, will be the test case."