ChosunBiz conducted a "real estate market outlook" survey of 20 real estate experts to mark 2026. Ahead of major political events such as the June local elections in the byeongo year, experts expected a shortage of dwellings supply, rising jeonse and monthly rent prices, and resulting increases in sale prices. All experts who responded to the survey agreed that apartment prices in Seoul will rise this year. They also predicted increases in the apartment lease (jeonse and monthly rent) markets in both the Seoul metropolitan area and non-metropolitan regions. Experts said the government needs to drastically ease regulations on maintenance projects such as reconstruction and redevelopment to help the market recover. We examined domestic real estate experts' 2026 outlooks focused on prices, supply, and policy. [Editor's note]
Most experts expected apartment prices in Seoul to rise within 5% this year. Some forecast an increase of more than 5%. The dominant view was also for apartment prices in the Seoul metropolitan area, including Gyeonggi and Incheon, to rise within 5%. In contrast, projections for apartment prices in the provinces were split between increases of more than 5% and staying flat around 0%.
◇ "The jeonse buffer has disappeared, so home prices will rise"
According to a Jan. 1 ChosunBiz survey of 20 real estate experts on the "2026 real estate market outlook," 17 experts, or 85% of all respondents, projected nationwide apartment prices would rise by 1% to 5% this year. The remaining three (15%) expected prices to be flat around 0%, and none forecast a decline.
Experts expected particularly strong upside potential for Seoul apartment prices. A total of 55% (11 people) projected a rise of about 1% to 5%. Those forecasting increases of more than 5% accounted for 45% (9 people). No experts predicted flat prices or declines.
Kim Jin-yu, a professor at Kyonggi University's Department of Urban Transportation Engineering, said, "Two to three months after the Oct. 15 measures, market participants have adapted to the regulations, and the lack of sharp supply measures will be the biggest driver of higher Seoul home prices," adding, "Upward pressure on home prices will be strong throughout the year."
Some also said a decline in jeonse listings due to the ban on gap investing (buying with jeonse in place) will push up Seoul apartment prices this year. Cho Young-gwang, a researcher at Daewoo E&C, said, "In the past, people who wanted to buy an apartment had the option of jeonse, which served as a buffer against a rise in sale prices, but as jeonse gradually disappears, people are forced to choose between paying monthly rent or buying a home," adding, "This will ultimately lead to a surge in purchase demand and rising home prices."
The outlook for rising prices was no different for the Seoul metropolitan area outside Seoul, such as Gyeonggi and Incheon. Fourteen out of 20 experts (73.7%) expected apartment prices in Gyeonggi and Incheon to rise by 1% to 5%. Park Won-gap, a senior specialist at KB Kookmin Bank, said, "As Seoul home prices rise, end users who feel burdened will head to Gyeonggi and Incheon, which will ultimately lead to stronger demand and higher prices in these areas," adding, "Even if the government announces dwellings supply measures, it will be difficult for them to be supply solutions that people trying to buy apartments in the metropolitan area can feel in a practical sense."
In contrast, experts viewed the provincial apartment market somewhat differently from Seoul and the metropolitan area. Eight out of 20 experts (40%) projected apartment prices in the provinces, including metropolitan cities, would rise by 1% to 5%. Conversely, eight experts (40%) expected prices to remain flat around 0%. Three experts (15%) projected a decline of 1% to 5%.
Kim Hyo-seon, senior real estate specialist at NH Nonghyup Bank, said, "Provincial apartment prices have been falling since 2022, and recently almost all regions have hit bottom, but this year, depending on regional supply volumes and the size of end-user demand, some areas will see slight increases while others will continue to decline."
◇ "Jeonse and monthly rent supply shortages due to gap-investing ban"
Experts agreed that the apartment lease (jeonse and monthly rent) market will rise this year across Seoul, the metropolitan area, and the provinces. Nationwide, 17 out of 20 (85%) projected the jeonse market would rise by 1% to 5%, and two (10%) projected an increase of more than 5%. Looking only at Seoul, 55% (11 people) forecast a 1% to 5% rise in jeonse prices, while 45% (9 people) expected jeonse prices to jump more than 5%.
For the nationwide apartment monthly rent market, 75% (15 people) expected a rise of 1% to 5% or more, and 25% (5 people) projected an increase of more than 5%. No experts predicted flat prices or declines. Experts said that tighter loan rules and owner-occupancy requirements under the Oct. 15 measures have reduced jeonse and monthly rent supply, and increases in real estate taxes such as holding and transaction taxes could also drive up rents.
Kim Eun-seon, head of the Big Data Lab at ZIGBANG CO., said, "As new move-in volumes enter an adjustment phase, especially in core areas of Seoul and the metropolitan area, there are limits on newly built dwellings that can be put directly into the jeonse and monthly rent market," adding, "On top of that, with tighter regulations related to loans and transaction, the supply of jeonse and monthly rent listings after purchases by investment-demand buyers is less fluid than in the past."
Ham Young-jin, head of the Real Estate Research Lab at Woori Bank, explained, "In some areas, including Sejong, there is almost no move-in volume this year, so jeonse and monthly rent supply will also decline," adding, "We also expect more cases where increases in real estate tax burdens, such as higher holding taxes, are passed on to monthly rents."
※ 20 experts surveyed (in alphabetical order of Korean surnames)
Go Jun-seok, chief professor at Yonsei University Sangnam Institute of Management; Kwon Dae-jung, professor at the Graduate School, Department of Real Estate, Sogang University; Kim Gyu-jeong, head of the Asset Succession Research Center, Korea Investment & Securities Co.; Kim Seong-hwan, research fellow at the Korea Research Institute for Construction Policy; Kim Eun-seon, lead of the Data Lab, ZIGBANG CO.; Kim Je-gyeong, head of Tumi Real Estate; Kim Jin-yu, professor at Kyonggi University, Department of Urban Transportation Engineering; Kim Hyo-seon, senior real estate specialist at NH Nonghyup; Park Won-gap, senior specialist at KB Kookmin Bank; Seo Jin-hyung, professor at Kwangwoon University; Song Seung-hyeon, CEO of Urban and Economy; Song In-ho, head of the Economic Information Center, KDI; Sim Hyeong-seok, head of Uddebbang Research Institute; Woo Byeong-tak, Premier Pathfinder Commissioner, Shinhan Bank; Yoo Seon-jong, professor at Konkuk University; Yoon Ji-hae, senior researcher at Real Estate R114; Lee Eun-hyeong, research fellow at Korea Institute of Construction Policy; Lee Chang-mu, professor at Hanyang University, Department of Urban Engineering; Cho Young-gwang, researcher at Daewoo E&C; Ham Young-jin, head of the Real Estate Research Lab, Woori Bank