Competition in the subscription market for Seoul apartments is expected to intensify next year, when a move-in cliff has been signaled. The "lottery subscription" fever centered on the three Gangnam districts (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa), where the price cap system applies amid soaring home prices, is not expected to fade. Despite lending curbs and owner-occupancy requirements, significant pent-up demand is expected from buyers aiming for tens of billions of won in capital gains.
According to the construction industry on the 31st, SK ecoplant will begin sales in January for DE'FINE Yeonhui at 533-5 Yeonhui-dong, Seodaemun District. As SK ecoplant's first high-end branded complex applied in Seoul, it will be built with 13 buildings from 4 floors underground to 29 floors above ground, totaling 959 units. The general sale portion is 332 units. As a new complex supplied to Yeonhui-dong, regarded as a traditional affluent area in Seoul, for the first time in nine years, it is near Gajwa Station on the Gyeongui-Jungang Line. Crossing Hongje Stream leads to Gajaeul New Town, allowing access to nearby living infrastructure.
The regional housing association complex "The Sharp Sinpung Station" in Singil 5 District, Singil-dong, Yeongdeungpo District, is also slated for January sales. The Sharp Sinpung Station is a large complex with 16 buildings from 3 floors underground to 35 floors above ground, totaling 2,030 units, of which 312 units are planned for general sale. It is a 10-minute walk from Sinpung Station on Subway Line 7, and when the Shinansan Line's Sinpung Station opens in December next year, access to the Yeouido business district is expected to improve further.
In February, sales will begin for HAUTERRE Banpo, a reconstruction of the Sinbanpo 21st complex in Jamwon-dong, Seocho District. It will consist of two buildings from 4 floors underground to 20 floors above ground, totaling 251 units, with 87 units for general sale. Although a small apartment complex, it boasts excellent locational advantages as it sits in a station area for Banpo Station on Subway Line 7. The market expects a sale price of 850 million won per 3.3 square meters, raising expectations as a "lottery subscription" complex. Nearby Banpo Xi and Maple Xi are trading at about 1.4 billion won to 1.8 billion won per 3.3 square meters. The reconstruction complex of Jinju Apartment in Mullae-dong, Yeongdeungpo District, "The Sharp Le Privé (138 units for general sale)," is also set for February sales.
In March, "Summit The Hill (553 units)" in Heukseok-dong, Dongjak District, will launch. It sparked debate by attaching "West Banpo" to the complex name. That is how close it is to Banpo. In addition, "Bangbae Forest Xi (547 units)" and "Bangbae LEEL (180 units)" in Bangbae-dong, Seocho District, are highly likely to hit the market next year. The most watched large-scale complex is "Banpo THE H CLAST," in Banpo-dong, Seocho District. As the reconstruction of Banpo Jugong Complex 1 Districts 1, 2 and 4, it is slated to have 50 buildings from 5 floors underground to 35 floors above ground, totaling 5,007 units (1,832 units). With Gu Banpo Station on Line 9 attached, it is a prime station-area mega complex, drawing substantial subscription waitlist demand already. General sales are scheduled for September next year.
Next year's supply of move-in ready apartments in Seoul will be cut to about half compared with this year. According to ZIGBANG CO., next year's move-in supply in Seoul will be 16,412 units, down 48% from this year. Half of these are concentrated in the greater Gangnam area. Seocho District and Songpa District will see 5,155 and 2,088 units, respectively, totaling a little over 7,000 units. In addition, 2,451 units will be supplied in Eunpyeong District and 1,066 units in Gangseo District. Of the 25 autonomous districts, eight areas, including Gangbuk, Gwanak, Geumcheon and Nowon, have no scheduled move-in supply.
With the sales market concentrated in Gangnam, "cash-rich" buyers holding large sums are likely to have the upper hand again next year. A construction industry official said, "Unless loan restrictions are eased, you need at least 1 billion won in cash to subscribe for a Gangnam apartment," adding, "As a league for only the cash-rich continues, competition is expected to become even fiercer." This year, the average subscription competition rate for Seoul apartments was 146.64 to 1, the highest in four years since 2021's surge in home prices (164.13 to 1).