The nationwide apartment move-in outlook index for December fell from the previous month. The move-in outlook index gauges whether people who won apartment subscriptions are expected to pay the balance and move in as scheduled. A reading at or below 100 means a negative outlook for move-in conditions is dominant.
The Korea Housing Institute released on Dec. 11 the results of a survey of housing business operators. The nationwide apartment move-in outlook index for December came in at 75.5, down 4.3 points (p) from November.
By region, the move-in outlook index fell by 6.7p in the greater Seoul area (November 75.6→December 68.9), 3.1p in metropolitan cities (83.8→80.7), and 4.2p in provinces (78.3→74.1), respectively. The institute said, "Due to strong lending regulations following the implementation of the Oct. 15 measures to stabilize the housing market, the move-in outlook for apartments in the greater Seoul area declined," adding, "Outside the greater Seoul area, despite an increase in transaction volume, a deterioration in lending conditions at commercial banks and a continued accumulation of unsold units led to a simultaneous decline in the move-in outlook."
In the greater Seoul area, Seoul (85.2→76.6) and Incheon (72.0→59.0) declined, while Gyeonggi (69.6→70.9) rose slightly. As regulated areas (adjustment targets and overheated speculation zones) were expanded, demand for newly built apartments flowed to non-regulated areas, slightly lifting the move-in outlook index in Gyeonggi. Incheon also saw transaction volume and prices rise, centered on areas adjacent to Seoul such as Bupyeong, but the move-in outlook fell as new supply concentrated in districts such as Seo and Yeonsu, which have relatively poorer access to Seoul.
Jeonse listings also shrank sharply. The institute said, "In the greater Seoul area, when large-scale apartment complexes begin move-ins, jeonse listings typically come to about 20% of total households in the complex," adding, "But in large complexes in Seoul and Gwangmyeong that are about to start move-ins, jeonse listings are only 2% of total households." The institute interpreted this as the result of the Oct. 15 measures imposing a two-year owner-occupancy requirement and blocking "gap investing."
Among the five major metropolitan cities, only Ulsan (66.6→100.0) saw an improvement in the move-in outlook. Ulsan recently posted the highest month-over-month home price growth in non-capital regions in October compared with September as corporate earnings in the area improved.
Gwangju (75.0→53.8), Daegu (80.9→68.1), Busan (88.8→80.0), Daejeon (100.0→91.6), and Sejong (91.6→90.9) all saw declines in the move-in outlook index. The institute noted, "In some core areas of each region, transaction volume showed signs of recovery," but said, "Overall, the move-in outlook declined due to commercial banks halting new mortgage loan applications at the end of the year and an increase in the lending rate."
Among provinces, North Chungcheong (62.5→71.4) and South Gyeongsang (92.8→100) rose, while North Jeolla (87.5) and South Jeolla (66.6) were the same as the previous month. In North Chungcheong, new supply centered on Heungdeok District in Cheongju, where home prices are rising, improved the move-in outlook. In South Gyeongsang, Jinju and Changwon, where demand for dwellings is clear thanks to strength in local industries such as shipbuilding and defense, led the rise in the move-in outlook. South Chungcheong (90.9→66.6), Gangwon (75.0→62.5), North Gyeongsang (91.6→80.0), and Jeju (60.0→58.3) saw declines in the move-in outlook.
Meanwhile, the nationwide apartment move-in rate in November was tallied at 65.9%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. By region, the greater Seoul area fell 4.5 percentage points (November 85.9%→October 81.4%), the five major metropolitan cities fell 1.7 percentage points (59.9%→58.2%), and other regions rose 6.9 percentage points (58.9%→65.8%). The reasons for non-move-in were, in order, ▲ failure to secure balance-payment loans (30.4%) ▲ delays in selling existing dwellings (30.4%) ▲ failure to secure tenants (21.7%) ▲ delays in selling subscription rights (8.7%).