The December nationwide apartment presale outlook index has fallen to its lowest level since December 2023, indicating the presale market is contracting again.
According to a survey of housing businesses by the Korea Housing Institute on the 9th, the December nationwide apartment presale outlook index was 66.3, down 5.8 points (p) from the previous month. During the same period, the greater Seoul area fell 6.2p from 73.3 to 67.1, and non-capital regions also dropped 5.8p from 71.9 to 66.1.
The Korea Housing Institute said, "With the presale market in the greater Seoul area quiet amid strong demand-side regulations, the result reflects a deepening polarization of regional real estate markets," adding, "After the Oct. 15 measures, real estate transaction volume in the provinces has increased somewhat, but unsold dwellings are also continuing to rise, which has not had a positive impact on the presale market outlook."
In the greater Seoul area, Seoul was relatively resilient, slipping 3.0p from 84.8 to 81.8. It was analyzed as stemming from a moderated pace of home price gains due to the Oct. 15 measures and a rise in the lending rate. In contrast, Gyeonggi rose 1.7p from 69.7 to 71.4, showing a differentiated trend within the region due to a spillover effect to adjacent areas from regulations such as the land transaction permit system.
Incheon plunged 17.2p from 65.2 to 48.0. Incheon was the only area in the greater Seoul area where home sale transactions decreased in October, and with unsold dwellings up 18.9% in October from September and about 9,000 new units scheduled for presale by year-end, concerns about a short-term supply glut appear to have been reflected.
Outside the greater Seoul area, Ulsan jumped 14.3p from 71.4 to 85.7, and Daejeon and Sejong also inched up, signaling signs of recovery in some regions. In contrast, Gwangju plunged 27.0p from 71.4 to 44.4, and many areas including Jeju, North Gyeongsang, South Chungcheong and Daegu recorded double-digit declines, widening regional disparities. In Ulsan, improvements in key industries such as autos and shipbuilding have strengthened the end-user base, and the city's home price growth rate, the highest after Seoul and Gyeonggi, is supporting presale expectations.
Other regions were projected as follows: Daejeon up 1.5p (92.3→93.8), Sejong up 1.3p (83.3→84.6); Gwangju down 27.0p (71.4→44.4), Jeju down 14.3p (64.3→50.0), North Gyeongsang down 14.1p (83.3→69.2), South Chungcheong down 13.5p (75.0→61.5), Daegu down 11.4p (86.4→75.0), North Jeolla down 6.7p (66.7→60.0), Busan down 5.0p (80.0→75.0), South Gyeongsang down 4.7p (71.4→66.7), and Gangwon down 1.1p (55.6→54.5). North Chungcheong (55.6p) and South Jeolla (50.0p) were projected unchanged from the previous month.
The presale price outlook index recorded 101.6, up 1.6p from the previous month, with responses favoring higher presale prices. The presale volume outlook index also rose 4.7p from 79.7 to 84.4. The Korea Housing Institute explained, "Higher raw material costs due to a strong dollar and increased financing costs from rising interest rates are acting as factors pushing up presale prices," adding, "Builders, considering PF maturities and financial burdens, are moving to bring forward presales within the year."
The unsold inventory outlook index rose 3.1p from 98.5 to 101.6, expanding the possibility of more unsold units. While some areas in Seoul and Gyeonggi are posting high subscription competition rates, other regions are seeing increases in unsold units, suggesting a deepening polarization of the presale market.