The National Assembly Research Service published a report saying that the "10·15 housing market stabilization measures" had significant side effects, including limiting opportunities for youth and low-income groups to purchase dwellings and increasing housing costs.
◇ "Careful review needed to minimize side effects when announcing measures"
According to the National Assembly on the 27th, the National Assembly Research Service published a report on the 24th titled "Main contents and tasks of the 10·15 housing market stabilization measures." In the report, the research service pointed out the side effects of the 10·15 measures.
The report said, "These measures appear to have an overall effect of reducing transactions and are particularly effective at reducing speculative transactions, but they are also affecting the jeonse and wolse markets by restricting dwelling purchases for low-asset households, decreasing jeonse listings, and shifting to monthly rent." It continued, "A careful review is needed to stabilize the housing market and minimize side effects," and noted that future measures should be designed to have fewer side effects.
As evidence that the 10·15 measures reduced home purchase opportunities for low-income groups, the report cited a sharp decline in apartment sales. Sales fell sharply compared with before the announcement, which the research service analyzed was because jeonse tenants and other people without dwellings could not use loans to buy homes.
The report analyzed the real estate market after the 10·15 measures based on the "2024 Household finance and welfare survey" released by related ministries, including the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) real transaction disclosure system and the National Data Office. According to the analysis, apartment sales in Seoul numbered 905 from Oct. 15 to 22, and 110 from Oct. 23 to 30, after the announcement. Compared with Oct. 1 to 7 (1,236 cases) and Oct. 8 to 14 (1,545 cases) before the announcement, transactions fell sharply.
This decline in transactions was analyzed to be because end users, such as jeonse households in the greater Seoul area, were unable to purchase dwellings. The average net worth of jeonse households in the greater Seoul area is 547.38 million won. However, due to the 10·15 measures, the self-funding needed to purchase dwellings is 744 million won (Seoul's average apartment price of 1.24 billion won with a 40% LTV applied in regulated areas).
A dwelling priced at 1.5 billion won requires 900 million won in self-funding, and even a dwelling priced at 1 billion won requires 600 million won. This means that even a 1 billion won apartment in Seoul, which is below the average price, can no longer be purchased with a loan by someone living in a jeonse household in the greater Seoul area. The report said, "Since the average net worth of jeonse households in the greater Seoul area is 547.38 million won, households with insufficient assets face constraints in purchasing apartments at the average level in regulated areas such as Seoul."
◇ 30-somethings' net worth is 250 million won, "hard to secure ownership"
The report also pointed out that opportunities for 30-something youth to secure dwellings have decreased due to these measures. The average net worth of people in their 30s (ages 30–39) is 254.02 million won, meaning loan restrictions have greatly reduced opportunities to buy dwellings. The report said, "In the life cycle, households in their 30s, who are at the marriage and childbirth stage, have an average net worth of about 250 million won, but in regulated areas such as Seoul, it is realistically difficult to prepare the self-funding needed to purchase dwellings (at least 600 million won or more)." It added, "Given that, as of Oct. 2025, Seoul's average jeonse-to-price ratio is around 51.8%, even using the jeonse deposit, it is difficult to make up the funding shortfall caused by the 40% LTV restriction."
The report also addressed side effects in the rental market, including jeonse and wolse. With 12 areas in Seoul and Gyeonggi designated as land transaction permit zones and a two-year owner-occupancy requirement imposed, purchases of dwellings for rental purposes were restricted, which led to a decrease in jeonse supply. The report said, "Previously, there was demand to hold one dwelling while purchasing a small apartment with jeonse to gain rental revenue, but such behavior has become impossible due to regulations." It also explained, "With the implementation of the land transaction permit system fundamentally blocking gap investing using housing loans, the speculative investments that had supplied jeonse have been blocked, resulting in fewer jeonse listings."
It went on to say, "In land transaction permit zones, buyers of dwellings are likely to reject tenants' requests to renew contracts in order to meet the owner-occupancy requirement, which can cause affected tenants to experience temporary housing instability." Because new buyers of dwellings must live there for two years, even if a tenant seeks to exercise the right to renew, it can be refused for owner-occupancy.
Rising housing costs for tenants were also expected to accelerate due to the 10·15 measures. The report added, "As demand for buying dwellings shifts to rental demand, rental prices will rise, and landlords may often convert part of the jeonse deposit increase to monthly rent and demand deposit-based monthly rent from tenants."
This diagnosis is similar to concerns from market experts. Shim Hyeong-seok, head of Udubbang Research Institute (IAU professor), said, "Expanding regulated areas and cutting LTV to 40% is a policy that is fatal to home purchases for low-income groups," adding, "Policy coordination does not seem to have been done properly during the ruling party-government consultations."
Lee Sang-geun, a professor in the Department of Real Estate at Sogang University's Graduate School, also said, "With the 10·15 measures, jeonse listings are decreasing and existing jeonse is shifting to monthly rent, which is increasing the housing cost burden on people without dwellings and reducing disposable income."