This year, the gap in apartment subscription competition rates between Seoul and non-Seoul areas hit an all-time high.
According to RealToday, a real estate research firm, which analyzed subscription data from the Korea Real Estate Board (KREB) on Subscription Home on the 16th, the average first-priority subscription competition rate in Seoul from January to October this year was 136.0 to 1. In contrast, the average subscription competition rate in non-Seoul areas over the same period was 4.2 to 1.
Seoul's subscription competition rate was 32.4 times that of non-Seoul, the widest gap since RealToday began compiling subscription statistics in 2010.
The gap in subscription competition rates (multiple) between Seoul and non-Seoul stayed below threefold through 2019. It then widened to 3.7 times in 2020, 9.4 times in 2021, 1.3 times in 2022, 7.1 times in 2023, 13.9 times last year, and 32.4 times this year.
Seoul's average subscription competition rate peaked at 163.8 to 1 in 2021, then plunged to 10.3 to 1 in 2022, but has risen for three straight years (56.9 to 1 in 2023 → 108.3 to 1 last year → 136.0 to 1 this year).
Among Seoul apartment complexes offered for sale this year, the top three first-priority subscription competition rates were Otierre Foret in Seongsu-dong 1-ga, Seongdong District (688.1 to 1), Jamsil Le-EL in Sincheon-dong, Songpa District (631.6 to 1), and Riversen SK View Lotte Castle in Junghwa-dong, Jungnang District (430. to 1), all in the triple digits.
By contrast, the average subscription competition rate in non-Seoul areas has declined for five years (23.8 to 1 in 2020 → 17.5 to 1 in 2021 → 8.1 to 1 in 2022 → 7.9 to 1 in 2023 → 7.8 to 1 last year → 4.2 to 1 this year).
In particular, excluding Seoul, the Seoul metropolitan area (Gyeonggi and Incheon) also stayed in the single digits after hitting a record high of 28.4 to 1 in 2020, coming in at 7.6 to 1 in 2022, 7.3 to 1 in 2023, 9.3 to 1 in 2024, and 3.8 to 1 this year.
From the start of this year through last month in Gyeonggi and Incheon, excluding subscriptions due to cancellations by association members or households that lost eligibility, no complex posted a triple-digit competition rate.
Analysts say Seoul's exceptionally high subscription competition rate stems from extensive local development and housing supply already carried out, combined with the fact that most new supply comes through redevelopment projects, leaving limited general-sale volumes. In fact, from January to October this year, the number of general-sale apartment units in Seoul was 1,670, far short compared with Incheon and Gyeonggi (31,199 units) or the provinces (42,240 units). Even so, first-priority applicants in Seoul numbered 227,155, far exceeding the provinces (188,340) and Incheon and Gyeonggi (119,502).