Since the Oct. 15 measures to stabilize the dwellings market, the Seoul metropolitan area dwellings market has seen an overall decline in transactions. However, in some areas not designated as regulated zones, transactions have instead increased.
On the 10th, Zigbang analyzed the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's data on actual apartment sale prices in the Seoul metropolitan area and found that in the 20 days after the Oct. 15 real estate measures (Oct. 16–Nov. 4), the number of apartment sale transactions in the metropolitan area was 8,716. That is about a 43% decrease from 15,412 in the 20 days before the measures (Sept. 25–Oct. 14).
In particular, in regulated zones such as all of Seoul and 12 areas in Gyeonggi Province, transactions fell 76%, from 10,242 to 2,424 over the same period. In contrast, apartment sale transactions in nonregulated areas of the metropolitan area excluded from the regulated zones increased 22%, from 5,170 to 6,292. It appears that demand from end-users and some who had been on the sidelines flowed into areas with lighter loan regulations and tax burdens, contributing to the increase in transactions in nonregulated areas.
Among nonregulated areas in the metropolitan area, Gwonseon District in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province, saw a particularly notable rise in transaction volume. Apartment sale transactions in Gwonseon District increased 73%, from 143 before the measures to 247 after. In Suwon, Jangan, Paldal, and Yeongtong districts were designated as regulated zones, but only Gwonseon District remained nonregulated. ▲ Samhwan (Guun-dong) ▲ Gwonseon Xi E-Pyunhansesang (Gwonseon-dong) ▲ Homaesil Maeul Complex 13 (Homaesil-dong) and other large complexes with favorable school districts and transportation saw increased demand inflows, boosting transactions.
The next area with a sharp increase in transactions was Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province. Hwaseong's sale transactions rose from 561 before the measures to 890 after, marking the highest count among single municipalities. With Hwaseong excluded from the regulated zones, demand has continued to flow in, with listings around Dongtan being absorbed. As one of the few areas where gap investment is possible, it is perceived in the market as a "promising area," drawing strong interest from buyers. Transactions were centered on complexes within Dongtan New Town, including ▲ Dongtan Station EG The One ▲ Dongtan Station Central Prugio ▲ Dongtan 2 HausD The Lake.
Paju, Gyeonggi Province, also showed a 41% growth rate, rising from 148 transactions before the measures to 209 after. With the opening of GTX-A improving access to Seoul, transactions centered on end-user demand appear to have increased. Transactions continued mainly at complexes near GTX stations, including ▲ Sannae Maeul Complex 9 Hillstate Unjeong ▲ Hanul Maeul Complex 1 Unjeong New Town IPARK ▲ Unjeong New Town Central Prugio.
Guri, Gyeonggi Province, saw transaction volume increase 41%, from 133 before the measures to 187 after. There were many transactions mainly in station-area complexes near Guri Station on Subway Line 8, such as ▲ Inchang-dong Jugong Complex 6 ▲ Jugong Complex 1. In addition, Gunpo rose from 126 to 169 (34%), and Wonmi District in Bucheon rose from 143 to 179 (25%), confirming a trend of increased transactions centered on living areas adjacent to regulated zones with excellent transportation conditions.
Meanwhile, in all of Seoul and 12 areas of Gyeonggi Province designated as regulated zones, transactions fell from 10,242 before the measures to 2,424 after, a decrease of about 76%. Areas with particularly steep declines included ▲ Yeongdeungpo District, Seoul (-95%) ▲ Sujeong District, Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province (-93%) ▲ Seongdong District, Seoul (-91%) ▲ Bundang District, Gyeonggi Province (-89%) ▲ Jungwon District, Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province (-86%). Strengthened loan regulations appear to have sharply dampened end-user buying sentiment.
In Seoul's Gangnam area, which was already a regulated zone, the decline in transactions was relatively small. In particular, Seocho District showed a slight increase in transaction volume (2%) compared with before the measures, and Songpa District (-12%) and Gangnam District (-40%) also saw smaller declines than other areas. Although there were some adjustments such as loan limits, the impact of the latest measures seems limited because these areas were already under regulation.
Since the Oct. 15 measures, the metropolitan apartment sale market has shown a clear regional divergence depending on the strength of regulation. In areas directly under the influence of the regulations, buying sentiment weakened and transactions plunged, while in areas not subject to regulation, transactions were relatively maintained or increased.
In regions with tighter regulations, funding burdens have increased, while in nonregulated areas, demand avoiding those burdens has concentrated, creating short-term imbalances. With the policy's effects diverging by region, the market is likely to remain in an adjustment phase for the time being as it adapts to changes in regulation and financing conditions, Zigbang said.