A projection said that while nationwide home prices will rise 0.8% next year, jeonse prices will surge 4%. The expectation is that jeonse prices will climb due to a slowdown in home purchases and fewer new move-ins.
Kim Seong-hwan, research fellow at the Korea Research Institute for Construction Policy (KRICP), said at the "2026 construction, materials, and real estate outlook and seminar on securing market stability and sustainability" held at the Construction Hall in Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, on the 4th that nationwide prices for dwellings in 2026 will rise 0.8%.
With supply shortage pressures and continued concentration of demand in the greater Seoul area, the rise in prices for dwellings in the greater Seoul area is forecast to reach 2.0%, while non-capital regions are expected to fall 0.5%.
For jeonse, the increase is projected to reach 4.0%. A combination of fewer new move-ins, inflows of jeonse demand due to weaker buying, and rising end-user demand is expected to sharply widen the gain compared with this year's outlook (projected rise of 1.0%).
Next year, permits and pre-sales for dwellings are projected at 470,000 units and 250,000 units, respectively. Permits for dwellings are expected to increase on the back of expansion centered on the greater Seoul area in the private institutional sector and a recovery in volumes in the public institutional sector. However, from next year onward, public volumes will largely take the form of the public sector absorbing volumes initially planned for private supply, so the increase in total supply will likely be limited.
In the pre-sale market, preference for new builds remains solid, but supply is expected to be constrained by high construction costs and construction-related regulations. As demand concentrates only in prime locations in the greater Seoul area and key regional markets, polarization is expected to intensify, with sellouts and unsold inventory coexisting even within the same area.
Next year's domestic construction orders are projected at 231.2 trillion won, up 4.0% from this year. Over the same period, construction investment is expected to rise 2.0% to about 270 trillion won.