With two large complexes set to begin move-ins in December this year and January next year in Jamsil, Songpa-gu, Seoul, attention is focused on how year-end jeonse prices in the area will move. The two complexes on the eastern side of Jamsil total 4,500 households, and it is unlikely that jeonse prices will plunge as they did when Els, Lirens, and Trizium ("El·Li·Te") began move-ins in the past. Instead, there is growing support for the view that the center of Jamsil's apartment market will shift eastward from "El·Li·Te" toward the Jamsil Station area.
According to the redevelopment industry on the 26th, Jamsil Raemian I'Park, rebuilt from the Jamsil Jinju Apartment, will begin move-ins in December. The complex is a large-scale community with 2,678 households and has access to Mongchontoseong Station on Line 8. Right next to it is Olympic Park.
In January next year, Jamsil Le-EL, just across the street, will begin move-ins. Rebuilt from the Jamsil Miseong and Clover apartments, it has a total of 1,865 households. With the two complexes moving in a month apart, a total of 4,500 households will be supplied at once to eastern Jamsil.
Some in the market recall the jeonse shock that occurred when the El·Li·Te complexes in Jamsil began move-ins all at once in 2007–2008, but the supply volume is not as large. The combined number of households in Els (5,678 households), Lirens (5,563 households), and Trizium (3,696 households) was 14,937, akin to a mini new town. At the time, a reverse jeonse crunch hit not only Songpa-gu but also neighboring Gangnam, Gangdong, and Gwangjin. In Gangdong-gu, jeonse for a "gukpyeong" (exclusive 84 square meters) fell to the 200 million won range. During move-ins for Helio City (9,510 households) in 2018 and Olympic Park Foreon (12,032 households) last year, apartment jeonse prices in the area also plunged.
Park Hapsu, an adjunct professor at Konkuk University Graduate School of Real Estate, said, "The key is how many of the 4,500 households will come onto the market as jeonse units, but Jamsil is a strongly preferred area for jeonse, and due to lending and owner-occupancy regulations, the supply may be smaller than expected," adding, "It is unlikely we will see a repeat of the shock that occurred when more than 10,000 households moved in, as with Olympic Park Foreon."
The biggest change expected from the move-ins at Jamsil Raemian I'Park and Jamsil Le-EL is that the axis of Jamsil's apartment market will shift eastward. Along with the two new complexes between Jamsilnaru Station (Line 2) and Mongchontoseong Station (Line 8), an apartment cluster of 11,407 households will form, including Park Rio (6,864 households) right behind them.
Looking ahead, if Jamsil District 5 is rebuilt into 6,387 households around 2030 and Jamsil Rose phases 1 and 2 complete reconstruction, they will be reborn as a large complex with 5,165 households. Centered on Jamsil Station (Lines 2 and 8), a massive apartment town totaling 22,959 households will take shape. In the past, "El·Li·Te," closer to Gangnam, was the center of Jamsil, but after Jamsil Raemian I'Park and Jamsil Le-EL begin move-ins, the center of the apartment market is expected to shift to the eastern side of Jamsil.
Baek Saerom, a senior researcher at Real Estate R114, said, "Once reconstruction around Jamsil Station is completed, the resident population will grow, leading to increases in land prices and regional value," adding, "The commercial district centered on Jamsilsaenae Station, anchored by 'El·Li·Te,' is expected to shift east."