Following the June 27 measures, the transaction volume of Seoul apartments has sharply decreased to one-third, while the transaction volume in the 'Gangnam Three Districts (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa)' has reportedly dropped by less than half. The limit of 600 million won on housing mortgage loans has had a significant impact in Seongdong District, Mapo District, and Dongjak District, where the volume of apartment transactions has decreased by over 80%. This suggests that regions where dual-income and high-income households typically concentrated to 'secure their own homes' have been severely affected by the lending regulations.
According to the Seoul Real Estate Information Plaza on the 25th, as of the 20th, the decrease in the number of apartment transactions in Seoul for June and July was confirmed at 66%. After recording 12,033 transactions in June, it plummeted to 4,110 in July. This comparison reflects data from June, where the majority of transaction reports were submitted before the announcement of the June 27 measures, against July that followed. However, since July's transactions may still be reflected until the end of this month, it is likely that this decrease will shrink in the future.
Analyzing the decrease across Seoul's 25 autonomous districts shows significant disparities. Only four districts, including Gangnam District, Seocho District, Songpa District, and Yongsan District, saw their transaction volumes reduced by less than half during the same period. Gangnam District experienced a decrease from 556 transactions to 318, a reduction of 43% (238 transactions). Seocho District went from 364 to 200 transactions, while Songpa District decreased from 653 to 360, both dropping by 45% (164, 293 transactions). Yongsan District recorded a reduction from 151 to 122, which is a decrease of 20% (29 transactions).
Among the districts, including the Gangnam Three Districts and Yongsan District, a total of 13 districts experienced a decrease in transaction volume below the overall figure for Seoul (66%). Specifically, the decreases were ▲Gangbuk District -53% ▲Gangseo District -60% ▲Gwanak District -53% ▲Guro District -57% ▲Geumcheon District -60% ▲Nowon District -62% ▲Dobong District -54% ▲Eunpyeong District -52% ▲Jungnang District -58%. These districts are primarily located on the outskirts of Seoul, where apartment prices are generally lower. Receiving a housing mortgage of 600 million won could allow for purchases in these areas.
When examining based on transaction volume, it appears that high-priced areas like the Gangnam Three Districts and Yongsan District were less affected by the June 27 measures. According to the real estate platform Dabang, as of the second quarter of this year, the average sale price for Seoul 'National Standard (84㎡)' apartments was 1.3 billion won. Of the 25 districts, Seocho District posted the highest sale price at 2.994 billion won, nearing 3 billion won. This is equivalent to 225% of the average price in Seoul. Gangnam District was at 208% of the average sale price, Songpa District at 156%, and Yongsan District at 110%. However, in the case of Yongsan District, it is interpreted that the average sale price is priced lower due to the mixed presence of both high-end and low-end areas like Dongbuichon-dong.
The average sale prices of apartments in Seongdong District, Mapo District, and Dongjak District, all significantly impacted by the 600 million won loan limit, are around 1.45933 billion won, 1.49913 billion won, and 1.35319 billion won, respectively. However, this is the average value, and the most frequently sold apartments in the 84㎡ size range are listed at around 2 billion won. This year, the apartment with the highest number of transactions in Seongdong District before the June 27 measures was 'Centras' in Hawangsimni-dong, which recently reached a sale price of 2.05 billion won (17th floor). In Mapo District, 'Mapo Raemian Prugio' in the same size range also reached the highest price this month at 2.05 billion won (13th floor). 'Hillstate Sangdo Central Park' in Dongjak District was traded at 1.650 million won (17th floor) this month. To purchase at this price, one would need equity ranging from 1.05 billion to 1.45 billion won after receiving a mortgage of 600 million won.
Analysts suggest that in areas like the Gangnam Three Districts and Yongsan District, where apartment prices are high, the June 27 measures have transformed the market into one dominated by 'cash-rich' buyers. The 'National Standards' prices in these districts are around 3 billion won, necessitating at least 2.4 billion won in equity to breach that barrier. This means that even those with high earned income capable of paying substantial principal and interest have now found it challenging to enter the market.
In contrast, it is possible to analyze that the middle class seeking 'their own homes' is gravitating toward mid to low-priced areas in Seoul. In Eunpyeong District, where the decrease in transaction volumes was the smallest among these regions, the average sale price of the National Standards is 968.46 million won, so if one were to borrow 600 million won, the required equity would be around 370 million won.
Park Hap-soo, a professor at the Konkuk University Graduate School of Real Estate, noted, 'Most apartment transactions in Seoul are due to upgrading, but currently, due to psychological contraction, the number of transactions itself has decreased, making it difficult to purchase.' He added, 'In the cases of Seongdong District, Mapo District, and Dongjak District, the limits established by the 600 million won loan cap have blocked the entry of high-income earners above a certain level.'
Ham Young-jin, head of the Real Estate Research Lab at Woori Bank, stated, 'In cases of the Gangnam Three Districts and Yongsan District, the land transaction permit system has already been implemented, which has lowered sensitivity toward loans.' He indicated that new entries are likely to be possible only for so-called 'cash-rich' buyers, suggesting that movement within Gangnam is feasible.