The subscription sentiment in Seoul and the metropolitan area has significantly worsened. The competition ratio for first-choice subscriptions in Seoul has dropped to its lowest level in 13 months. This is analyzed as a phenomenon resulting from more people giving up on subscriptions due to the rising sale prices of new apartments and the government's loan regulations. However, the popularity of relatively affordable complexes that apply the sale price ceiling system or are developed on public land is expected to continue.
According to real estate agency Real House on the 25th, the competition ratio for first-choice subscriptions in Seoul averaged 88.2 to 1 in July. This marks the first time since June 2024 (76.05 to 1) that the ratio has dropped to the 80s in Seoul. The competition ratio for subscriptions in Seoul has consistently been over 100 to 1 since recording 111.17 to 1 in September last year.
In October last year, the average competition ratio even rose to 145.23 to 1. At that time, Hyundai E&C supplied the high-end brand "THE H" for the first time with "THE H Daechi Edelweiss" in Daechi-dong, Gangnam-gu, which recorded an average competition ratio of 1025.6 to 1, raising the average subscription competition ratio.
The recent decline in subscription competition ratios in Seoul is related to a decrease in the volume of units available for sale while prices are rising, creating an increasingly difficult environment for obtaining subscriptions. Additionally, the government's June 27 loan regulation, which limits mortgage loans for metropolitan area apartments to below 600 million won, has also made it difficult for actual demanders to secure funds, contributing to the cooling of the subscription fervor.
According to KB Real Estate, the volume of apartment units available for sale in Seoul last year was 12,467 units (excluding members and rentals, based on general sales). This represents a decrease of 6,699 units (34.9%) from the previous year's 19,166 units. This year, the volume has dropped further, with 2,573 units sold in the first half and 3,634 units expected to be sold or made available in the second half. The annual total is estimated at 6,207 units.
According to the Korea Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG), the average sale price per square meter of private apartments in Seoul in July was 13,752,879 won, which amounts to approximately 1.15 billion won when converted for the "national standard" exclusive area of 84 square meters. Even with the maximum loan of 600 million won, more than 500 million won in cash is required to pay for the sale price.
However, subscriptions for complexes with applied sale price ceilings, which offer relatively lower prices, continue to be popular. According to real estate platform Zigbang, the competition ratio for first-choice subscriptions for apartments in Seoul applied with the sale price ceiling system between January and June 10 of this year was 122.5 to 1. The 'RAEMIAN One Perla' in Seocho-gu recorded a ratio of 151.6 to 1, while 'Godeok Gangil Daesung Verhil' in Gangdong-gu showed a competition ratio of 97.4 to 1.
Kim Seon-ah, head of the subscription analysis team at Real House, noted, "For complexes that apply the sale price ceiling or are publicly sold, if you add a little more to the current loan limit of 600 million won, they could provide better subscription sentiment than high-priced complexes that do not offer such options."
Kim Eun-sun, head of the Big Data Lab at Zigbang, said, "(The subscription fervor has cooled slightly) but the complexes with sale price ceilings have price competitiveness, and in a situation where apartment prices in Seoul are rising recently, complexes under the sale price ceiling are becoming increasingly popular."