As apartment prices continue to rise, the likelihood of winning a subscription is decreasing, and even if one wins a subscription, it is becoming difficult to secure funding, resulting in a 20% decline in the number of short-term subscribers who have joined a subscription account for less than five years over the past three years.
According to the Korea Real Estate Board (REB) on the 20th, as of the end of last month, there were 2,009,500 people who had subscribed to the comprehensive savings plan for dwellings for four years or more but less than five years. This represents a decrease of 7.6% (about 165,000 people) compared to the same period last year. The number of subscribers who have joined for four years or more but less than five years has decreased for three consecutive years since 2022, falling by 20.2% (509,000 people) compared to June 2022.
As of the end of last month, the number of subscribers who have joined for six months to less than one year was 1,122,222, a decrease of 9.2% (114,000 people) compared to the same period last year. Compared to 2021, when the decrease began for this group, it has fallen by 43.8% in four years.
With the influx of 'lottery subscriptions' last year and this year, Seoul, which has been leading the atmosphere in the subscription market, has seen a faster rate of decline in subscribers. The number of subscribers in Seoul for four years or more but less than five years (359,576) has decreased by 14.3% compared to the previous year, while those who have subscribed for six months to less than one year (228,751) have decreased by 11.0%.
In contrast, long-term subscribers, who have a relative advantage in the subscription market due to their longer subscription period, have significantly increased. As of the end of last month, there were 1,215,036 subscribers nationwide for ten years or more but less than eleven years, an increase of 39.1% (342,000 people). The number of those who have held an account for over 15 years increased by 40.4% (757,000 people).
The total number of account holders is 25,111,729, a decrease of 1.5% (394,660 people) compared to the same period last year.
The rapid decrease in short-term subscribers is attributed to the government's tightening of housing-related loan regulations and the rapid increase in apartment prices, particularly in popular complexes in Seoul.
According to the Korea Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG), as of the end of June, the average sale price per square meter in Seoul was 13,939,000 won, an increase of 9.97% compared to the same month last year. When converted based on the national standard area (112㎡), this amounts to approximately 1.56 billion won.
Although sale prices are high, the competition rises in popular complexes, making it difficult to win subscriptions even with a reasonable subscription period.
Kwon Il, head of the real estate information research team, said, "Recent sale prices continue to rise, but they say that supply is not coming out, and in this situation, having a 3 to 5-year account really means that you are unlikely to win against subscribers who have had accounts for 15, 20 years or more."