The controversy over whether 'Gadeokdo' is appropriate for a new airport location has been ongoing since 20 years ago. Although the atmosphere is favorable for the project, as President Lee Jae-myung promised, concerns from the aviation and construction industries regarding 'safety and economic viability' remain significant. Attention is drawn to the intrinsic limitations of Gadeokdo International Airport and the background of Hyundai E&C's decision to withdraw as the leading consortium member. ChosunBiz aims to discuss technical safety issues such as construction methods and uneven subsidence, as well as economic viability, ahead of the re-bidding for the 'Gadeokdo International Airport site development project.'<Editor's note>
The 'Gadeokdo International Airport Construction Special Act' passed the National Assembly's plenary session in February 2021 after expedited examination. Both the ruling Democratic Party of Korea and the opposition People Power Party proposed special legislation at that time, and both bills omitted the 'cost estimation.' It was a special law that did not even include rough estimates of project costs or economic feasibility.
The direct and indirect expenses related to the construction of Gadeokdo International Airport remain unclear even four years later. Compensation for Gadeokdo residents began a month ago. About 6,000 fishery victims are expected, with the total compensation amount anticipated to reach the billion-won level. Although the economic viability, which will determine the success or failure of the international airport, has already received a failing grade, bills toward the national treasury are likely to continue pouring in even after completion.
According to the city of Busan and Gadeokdo International Airport Construction Corporation on the 4th, about 6,000 fishermen in the Busan and Gyeongnam regions are expected to suffer damages due to the construction of Gadeokdo International Airport. This was determined through an impact survey on fishery damages conducted by the city of Busan this year. Even if 100 million won is paid to each person, it will amount to 600 billion won, and the possibility of it being more than that is not small.
For fixed fishing operations under the Fisheries Act, compensation equivalent to 8.3 years of average revenue will be given for the cancellation of fishing licenses. Gadeokdo is located at the delta where seawater and freshwater meet, and there are seaweed farms spread throughout the vicinity. Fishermen operating fishing boats in waters near Gadeokdo will receive compensation equivalent to three years of their average revenue due to the cancellation of fishing permits. The city of Busan plans to soon sign an agreement with the Korea Fisheries Cooperative to provide compensation for fishing losses. Following this, an appraisal corporation will be selected to conduct damage assessments and determine individual compensation amounts. Payment of fishing compensation is expected to take place around 2028.
A representative from the Busan fishing compensation team said, 'It is difficult to even estimate a rough figure for the fishing compensation amount, so the budget has not yet been allocated.' They noted, 'In addition to direct damages such as cancellation of fishing licenses and permits, indirect damages vary based on the extent of harm, making it need significant time to estimate compensation amounts.'
Compensation for landowners in Gadeokdo began on June 5. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport secured a budget of 483.4 billion won for land compensation over the last year and this year. There are 672 landowners (668 parcels) who will receive compensation due to the construction of Gadeokdo International Airport, and as of the end of June, 149 have signed compensation contracts with the city of Busan. The city conducted a compensation plan notice for public review in July last year and then proceeded with the appraisal. Individual compensation amounts were notified at the end of May, and negotiations for compensation will take place until August 8. If an agreement cannot be reached, an application for expropriation will be submitted to the Central Land Expropriation Committee of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport.
The relocation expenses for Gadeokdo residents will also be included in the compensation. The total number of households residing in Gadeokdo is 420. A significant number of these households wish to relocate to Eco Delta City near the Myeongji International New Town in Gangseo-gu. The Gadeokdo New Town Construction Corporation is considering supplying single-family housing lots owned by the Korea Water Resources Corporation within Eco Delta City to residents. For those who do not wish for this, a relocation settlement fee will be provided. The corporation plans to finalize relocation measures in the third quarter of this year and determine specific relocation sites within the year.
The total compensation amount combining fishing, land compensation, and relocation expenses is expected to reach the billion-won level. The only amount for which the budget has been secured, the land compensation amount (483.4 billion won), has been conservatively estimated, with a high possibility of it being increased later. A representative from the Gadeokdo New Town Construction Corporation noted, 'The estimates reflected in the budget are often conservatively calculated,' adding, 'It is expected that the compensation amount will increase after the appraisal.'
The Gadeokdo International Airport Special Act was exempted from preliminary feasibility studies when it passed the National Assembly. The special law proposed by both ruling and opposition parties aimed to exempt not only preliminary feasibility studies but also pre-feasibility studies and environmental impact assessments, resulting in the so-called 'three-no law.' As concerns from various ministries and academia grew, the pre-feasibility studies and environmental impact assessments were conducted. According to the review report on the Gadeokdo Special Act by the Land Infrastructure and Transport Committee of the National Assembly in February 2021, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, and the Ministry of Justice all pointed out procedural issues. At that time, the Ministry of Economy and Finance stated, 'As with other general projects, it is necessary to verify the feasibility through preliminary feasibility studies after going through the responsible ministry's preliminary feasibility study regarding the location of the new airport.' Unlike preliminary feasibility studies, feasibility studies established for project funding have binding effects. If the economic viability and overall evaluations do not exceed a certain level, the budget from the Ministry of Economy and Finance cannot be allocated, making it challenging to carry out the project.
If the preliminary feasibility studies had been conducted, the construction of Gadeokdo International Airport would have been impossible. According to the results of the pre-feasibility study conducted in 2022, the benefit-cost analysis (B/C) for Gadeokdo International Airport was found to be between 0.51 and 0.58, indicating that the benefits gained from constructing the airport are only half of the expenses. Typically, a value exceeding 1 indicates economic viability. At that time, the government explained that it prioritized the value of balanced national development.
Additionally, the projected passenger demand for Gadeokdo International Airport from the pre-feasibility study was 23 million as of 2056, which is half of the 46 million predicted by the city of Busan during the project evaluation phase. The estimated project cost increased significantly to 13.7 trillion won, nearly double the 7.5 trillion won presented by the city of Busan. Subsequently, the Korea Development Institute (KDI) projected the construction cost of Gadeokdo International Airport to reach 16.6437 trillion won in 2023. Academia predicts that considering the lack of concrete plans for constructing associated transportation networks like roads and railways, as well as the likelihood of construction delays and difficult construction work, the total project cost could reach 30 trillion won.
The environmental impact evaluations are being conducted this year before the detailed design phase. The preceding strategic environmental impact evaluation conducted by the Ministry of Environment was concluded with a 'conditional consultation' opinion in 2023. The Ministry of Environment demanded that preservation measures be established and that flora and fauna be continuously monitored, stating that numerous endangered wildlife species inhabit the Gadeokdo International Airport site and that it is a migratory bird habitat.
However, controversy over the environmental impact evaluations arose as bird strikes were identified as one of the causes of the Muan Airport disaster that occurred at the end of last year. The Gadeokdo International Airport site is located about 7 kilometers from the Nakdong River estuary, a representative migratory bird habitat, making the possibility of bird strikes very high. According to the Ministry of Environment, the estimated annual number of bird strikes at Gadeokdo International Airport is projected to be between 4.48 and 14.7 times, significantly higher than at Muan Airport (0.06 times) as well as at Gimpo International Airport (2.9 times) and Incheon International Airport (2.8 times). Consequently, an advocacy group demanded the abandonment of the Gadeokdo International Airport project earlier this year.
A civil engineer from a large construction company that was considering participating in the land development project for Gadeokdo International Airport stated, 'We determined that the construction of Gadeokdo International Airport is a project with too much uncertainty,' adding, 'The proximity to a migratory bird habitat poses significant environmental risks, and the relocation costs are considerable, so it is expected to take longer than initially assumed in terms of procedures.' They continued, 'If the timeline is sufficient, it could yield significant revenue, but after thorough consideration, we decided not to participate.'