Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, has been confirmed as the presidential candidate, which has increased interest in the 'fourth new town.' This is one of the real estate supply measures proposed by Lee Jae-myung. This is because the 'third new town,' promoted during the Moon Jae-in administration, has just begun to take shape. There is a growing call in the market to increase supplies for the third new town, where supply has been underestimated, before mentioning the fourth new town.
According to the real estate industry on the 2nd, Lee Jae-myung stated on Facebook on the 25th that he would prepare for the development of the fourth new town with convenient transportation and supply comfortable and affordable dwellings to young people and newlyweds who do not own homes.
There are many opinions in the market that the timing of the fourth new town is inappropriate and that its feasibility is low. It is necessary to reconfigure the third new town that was promoted during the Moon Jae-in administration.
The third new towns include ▲Goyang Changneung ▲Namyangju Wangseok ▲Bucheon Daejang ▲Incheon Gyeongyang ▲Hanam Gyosan, totaling five areas. The construction plan for the third new town has been promoted since 2018, but full occupancy is possible only around 2030. According to the 'Year-by-Year Occupancy Plan for the Third New Town' submitted by the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) to Lee Yeon-hee, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, the first occupancy of public housing in the third new town will begin in December next year at 'Goyang Changneung.' The occupancy scale is only 1,285 units.
The overall construction completion rate of the third new town has just surpassed 6%. The completion rate for Incheon Gyeongyang Blocks A2 and A3 is about 25%, the highest among them. The completion rates for Goyang Changneung Blocks A4, S5, and S6 are at 2-3%. Meanwhile, Hanam Gyosan and Bucheon Daejang have just started construction, making it difficult to assess the completion rate. It is challenging to consider Namyangju Wangseok as having practically started construction since it is still at the construction level. Namyangju Wangseok is expected to have its main subscription in the latter half of this year. The amount supplied in the public housing districts centered on the third new town in the metropolitan area is about 240,000 units.
There are arguments in the market that the supply volume of the third new town needs to be increased. At the time of the announcement, the annual supply volume was significantly high, at around 400,000 units. It was pointed out that the government underestimated the supply volume of the third new town, considering this. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration increased it by 50,000 units, but considering that the supply volume for the second new town is 610,000 units, there is room for further increases. The third new town has excessive park and green space area (34%) and self-sufficient land (19%), while the floor area ratio (196%) is low, and adjusting these can allow for increases. The floor area ratio for the first new town is about 300-350% according to the aging city maintenance plan.
Park Hapsu, an adjunct professor at the Konkuk University Graduate School of Real Estate, noted, "When announcing the third new town, the floor area ratio was set too low considering a pleasant residential environment, and we should consider the feasibility since if we announce a new town now, it can only be occupied in 10 years."
Furthermore, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced four new candidate sites for housing expansion in response to the follow-up measures of the 8·8 housing supply activation plan last November: ▲Seoripul District (20,000 units), ▲Goyang Daegok (9,400 units), ▲Uiwang Ojeong Wangdog (14,000 units), and ▲Uijeongbu Yonghyeon (7,000 units). At that time, as concerns about 'supply shortage' grew in the market, the government was evaluated to have attempted a so-called 'yonggeul' (a term meaning to gather resources to the utmost).
A construction industry official, who requested anonymity, said, "Looking at the new candidate sites announced by the Ministry of Land and Infrastructure last year, it is questionable whether there will be a place for the fourth new town, as many public land development areas like Gimpo Hangang, Guri Galmae, Gwacheon, and Gwangmyeong Siheung are already in progress."