The project to supply 50,000 dwellings through the release of development restriction areas (greenbelts) is taking its first steps. One of the areas targeted for the greenbelt release, the Daekok Station area in Goyang, has entered the basic development plan preparation stage ahead of district designation in the first half of next year. Following this, areas such as Seongdong in Seoul, Ojeong Wanggok in Uiwang, and Yonghyeon in Uijeongbu are also expected to announce the scope of the strategic environmental impact assessment and proceed with the project soon.
The government plans to designate the district after this evaluation work next year, with sales scheduled for 2029 and occupancy in 2031. Given the significant shortage of dwelling supply, this policy is likely to continue without losing momentum even under the next administration.
According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport on the 30th, the government decided the evaluation criteria and scope for the strategic environmental impact assessment (basic development plan) required for the designation of the public housing district in the Goyang Daekok Station area. Following the collection of opinions on this, full-scale development work is expected to begin.
A Ministry of Land official noted, "We have published the items and indicators necessary for evaluation ahead of the district designation through meetings," explaining that it is aimed at briefly reviewing the necessary items before proceeding with the main impact assessment after the district designation.
Previously, the Ministry of Land released a plan to supply 50,000 dwellings by lifting 6.89 million square meters (about 2.08 million pyeong) of greenbelt areas, including ▲Seoul's Seocho-gu Seoripool district (20,000 dwellings), ▲Goyang Daekok Station area (9,400 dwellings), ▲Uiwang Ojeong Wanggok (14,000 dwellings), and ▲Uijeongbu Yonghyeon (7,000 dwellings) last November. The plan was to expand the housing supply by releasing the greenbelt for the first time in 12 years in response to the significant shortage of dwelling supply and increasing instability in the real estate market.
The government has set the proportion of residential facilities in the knowledge convergence complex being developed in the Goyang Daekok Station area at 460,000 square meters, which corresponds to 23.1% of the total area. There were also considerations to expand the residential facility area to 590,000 square meters, accounting for 29.6% of the total. However, since the condition for releasing the greenbelt in Goyang was to add self-sufficient functions instead of becoming a "bed town," a land use plan restricting residential facility area to 23.1% was adopted. Urban support facilities such as business and commercial facilities will occupy 420,000 square meters, which is 21.0% of the total area.
The evaluation committee assessed the land use plan, stating, "Residential facilities are placed in a tranquil environment to enhance the stability of the living environment, and urban support facilities are concentrated near Daekok Station to maximize efficiency."
As the evaluation criteria and scope for the Goyang Daekok Station area have been determined, the drafts of the strategic environmental impact assessment and climate change impact assessment are expected to be submitted in July. Other areas with greenbelt releases are also likely to sequentially reveal the evaluation criteria and scopes soon. A Ministry of Land official stated that "other regions will also disclose (evaluation criteria, etc.) soon."
Based on this work, the Ministry of Land plans to complete the designation of public land districts for these areas in the first half of next year. Even before district designation, compensation procedures will begin, and efforts to establish district plans will commence to supply dwellings as quickly as possible. The Ministry of Land had indicated a goal of starting sales in 2029 and the first occupancy in 2031 for these areas last November.
The current greenbelt release housing supply project is a policy of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, but it is highly likely that it will proceed as planned without losing momentum under the next government. As the shortage of dwelling supply continues, there is an expectation that the next administration will maintain the pace of housing supply in this area. There are even suggestions of expanding the volume of dwelling supply in this region.
The key indicator of housing supply, the construction start performance, is in a sluggish situation. In the first quarter of this year, starts were recorded at 34,021 dwellings, a decrease of 25.0% compared to the same period last year. Housing starts have continually fallen below the average annual demand of 450,000 dwellings, with 380,000 dwellings recorded in 2022, 240,000 in 2023, and 300,000 last year. As a result, instability in the real estate market, including rising home prices due to the shortage of dwelling supply, is expected to persist.