The number of apartment sales scheduled for next year is expected to be less than 160,000 units, marking a record low.
On the 27th, Real Estate R114 conducted a survey in conjunction with Yonhap News on the sales volume for 2025, revealing that a total of 146,130 units will be offered at 158 establishments nationwide. This figure significantly falls below the previous low of 172,670 units recorded in 2010, making it a new historical low. Even including the remaining volume of about 11,000 units from companies such as GS Engineering and Construction, Lotte Engineering and Construction, and HDC Hyundai Development Company, it is anticipated that it will not reach 160,000 units.
Looking at the sales plans for next year by region, the metropolitan area is expected to account for 85,840 units, making up 59% of the total. The provinces are projected to account for 60,290 units, or 41% of the total. By region, Gyeonggi will account for 50,550 units, Seoul for 21,719 units, and Incheon for 13,571 units. In the provinces, Busan (18,007 units) and Chungnam (13,496 units) are expected to see concentrations of over 10,000 units.
The monthly sales plan for 2025 indicates that the backlog will be concentrated in January (16,066 units), followed by approximately 11,000 units each in the peak spring months of April and May. After that, no significant trends are expected, with an estimated average supply of about 7,000 units.
Of the apartment sales volume for 2025, 53% (77,157 units) is attributed to self-construction (including contracts), while maintenance projects (including remodeling) account for 47% (68,973 units). The volume of maintenance projects decreased compared to the previous year, which Real Estate R114 attributed to the depletion of maintenance project volumes, particularly in the metropolitan area.
In 2024, the sales volume in Seoul was concentrated in the three Gangnam districts (Seocho, Gangnam, and Songpa), but in 2025, sales are expected to expand to Dongjak-gu, Yeongdeungpo-gu, and Eunpyeong-gu, increasing the share of mid-range areas. In Gyeonggi, while sales were concentrated in semiconductor-dominated areas such as Pyeongtaek, Osan, and Yongin in 2024, it appears that supply will decrease in 2025, cooling the market enthusiasm. In Incheon, sales concentrated in the upper-range area of Yeonsu-gu in 2024, but the share is expected to widen in the mid-range area of Namdong-gu in 2025. Real Estate R114 stated, "The results are analyzed as a consequence of the depletion of sales volume in upper-range areas, and there is a high possibility that sales will occur in areas with relatively low demand in 2025, worsening performance."
The 2024 sales performance of the top 10 construction companies based on construction capability evaluation is recorded at 77% of planned sales. The performance of Samsung C&T, Hyundai Engineering & Construction, Daewoo Engineering & Construction, DL E&C, and GS Engineering and Construction reached an average of 99% compared to plans, while the performance of Hyundai Engineering, POSCO E&C, Lotte Engineering and Construction, SK Eco Plant, and HDC Hyundai Development Company reached only an average of 59% of plans. The planned sales volume for the top 10 construction companies in 2025 is 107,612 units, which is about 69% of the 2024 figure (155,892 units).
Real Estate R114 noted that "In recent years, rising raw material prices, increasing labor costs, and stricter environmental regulations have caused construction costs to steadily rise. This increase in construction costs poses a significant obstacle not only to existing maintenance projects but also to the government's key supply strategies, including first and third-generation new towns." They added that "as project feasibility declines due to rising construction costs, securing financial support becomes challenging, creating a vicious cycle where distribution costs are ultimately passed on to consumers. Therefore, to ensure stable supply, the government and the construction industry must discuss substantial and realistic construction cost adjustment measures."
They also added that "If the policy vacuum due to the passing of the presidential impeachment proposal prolongs, the trust of market participants is likely to weaken, and investment sentiment may shrink. Particularly, if policies that significantly impact the real estate market lose momentum, market stagnation is bound to intensify." They emphasized that "relevant departments must provide stability to market participants through unwavering policy enforcement."