As the government reviews whether to dispatch troops to the Hormuz Strait, the ruling party's internal calculations are getting complicated. Some publicly voice opposition to the deployment, while others say relations with the United States need to be considered realistically. If a deployment to Hormuz becomes a reality, there is a strong chance that the defection of the traditional base and internal division will become a political burden for President Lee Jae-myung.
According to political circles on the 11th, Jin Sung-joon, a Democratic Party lawmaker who serves as the National Assembly defense committee Chairperson, received a report on the Hormuz deployment from the Ministry of National Defense on the 9th. Chairperson Jin requested the briefing to understand the government's position on the Hormuz deployment. It was not a session for the ministry to seek the National Assembly's consent for a deployment, the account said.
Chairperson Jin stressed that the Hormuz deployment should be reviewed from a "national interest-centered" perspective. Speaking to ChosunBiz that day, Jin said, "We cannot send troops just because the United States asks when we have no need of our own," but added, "Since the safety of our crude oil tankers is not secured, there is room to review it from the perspective of protecting our merchant ships." Jin also said, "We cannot completely shut the door and just say no, and we need to comprehensively consider practical needs."
Some lawmakers are taking a hard line, arguing for "opposition to deployment." Lee Gi-heon, a Democratic Party lawmaker, appeared on KBS Radio and said, "Some people think it can serve the national interest, but no argument is convincing." Kim Byung-joo, a Democratic Party lawmaker who is the ruling party secretary on the defense committee, also said on YouTuber Kim Ou-joon's channel, "If we become an enemy state to Iran, it will be difficult even in terms of national interest, and no matter how much the United States demands it, we should not be dragged along."
Most ruling party lawmakers still seem unsure which way to go. Right after the first reports on the Hormuz deployment, the mood was said to be one of "panic." The Democratic Party leadership is also refraining as much as possible from remarks related to the Hormuz deployment, saying it is "not an issue to discuss hastily."
The Democratic Party keeps agonizing over the Hormuz deployment because of "base defection" and "internal division." In 2003, when former President Roh Moo-hyun decided to send troops to Iraq, the party experienced a "core supporter defection" phenomenon and saw its approval ratings drop. In a survey of 1,000 voters conducted by Gallup Korea from the 8th to the 10th, 69% of Democratic Party supporters opposed the deployment. If traditional supporters peel away, there is also a chance the floor could split into a "pro-deployment" camp and an "anti-deployment" camp.
A senior Democratic Party lawmaker said, "Because most of our party members have traditionally placed importance on the principles of 'antiwar' and 'peace,' there will be backlash if we send troops, but we cannot ignore realism," adding, "If principles are not upheld, the likelihood that our party experiences division grows, and it will also be a considerable burden for the president."
Note: The public opinion poll related to the Hormuz deployment was conducted using CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) with randomly generated wireless virtual phone numbers provided by the three mobile carriers. The response rate was 9.4%, and the margin of error was ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.