It projected this. The plan would more than double capacity from 100 GW in 2030 in just 10 years. In particular, by expanding offshore wind deployment to 45 GW by 2040, the government aims to push large-scale rollouts centered on wind after 2030. As of this year, offshore wind deployment stands at 0.4 GW.
The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment and the 12th master committee for the basic plan for power supply and demand released a draft "renewable energy deployment outlook" with these details at the sixth public policy debate held on the 26th at the Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) South Seoul headquarters in Yeongdeungpo District, Seoul. In May, the government established and announced the first basic renewable energy plan with detailed tasks to accelerate renewable energy deployment, presenting goals of 100 GW of renewables by 2030 and a generation share of at least 30% by 2035.
The government's outlook for utility-scale renewable energy deployment was presented as increasing from 100 GW in 2030 to 163 GW in 2035 and 220 GW in 2040. That would be an increase of 120 GW from 2030 to 2040. Behind-the-meter solar, separate from utility-scale, was projected at 8 GW in 2030, 12 GW in 2035, and 16 GW in 2040.
By energy source, utility-scale solar is the largest at 155 GW in 2040. Onshore wind is projected to expand to 15.5 GW, and offshore wind to 45 GW. Other generation sources are set at 4 GW.
Offshore wind is projected to grow from 3.1 GW in 2030 to 25 GW in 2035 and expand to 45 GW by 2040. The ministry plans to launch planned-site projects in earnest after 2030 and streamline permitting by using the Offshore Wind Power Act to designate government-led generation zones. It will also secure infrastructure early, such as support ports and wind turbine installation vessels (WTIVs), to increase annual completion volumes.
Onshore wind will increase from 6.1 GW in 2030 to 12 GW in 2035 and 15.5 GW in 2040. The projection aggregates existing generation permits, expected new permits, and repowering volumes that replace aging equipment.
Solar will be expanded to 155 GW by 2040. The government said it applied a diffusion model based on market potential and past deployment performance, then reflected the effect of accelerating rollout by concentrating policy capacity. The ministry plans to use a pan-government task force (TF) to tap public sites and "sunlight income" villages early and support permitting reductions and grid and ESS expansion. It will also speed deployment by easing setback distances, finding new sites such as agrivoltaics and floating installations, and using industrial complexes and factory rooftops.
The government will use this outlook as basic data to establish the renewable energy facility plan for the 12th basic plan for electricity and reflect it in the final plan after further reviewing opinions from the public forum. However, revisions to the outlook due to future system changes, such as easing solar setback regulations, will be reflected in the 13th basic plan for electricity.