In the weekly survey by Realmeter released on the 24th, President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating fell to 40.2%. That was down 2.8 percentage points from the previous week and marked a decline for six straight weeks. By day, it fell from 41.5% on the 19th to 38.7% on the 20th and 39.0% on the 21st. In the latter half of the week, the approval rating dipped into the 30% range.
Initially, within the Democratic Party, there were high expectations that the president's approval rating would rebound after the party convention ended. The view was that the conflict between candidate Kim Min-seok and candidate Jung Chung-rae during the convention had translated into a drop in approval. A two-term Democratic Party lawmaker said, "The president's approval rating in the low-to-mid 40% range is the floor," adding, "Now that the convention is over one way or another, if the conflict is resolved under the leadership of Kim Min-seok, the president's approval rating will also rise."
However, even in last week's survey conducted after the convention wrapped up, the president's approval rating did not stop falling. In the Korea Gallup poll, it did rebound slightly last week, but it is still holding in the mid-40% range.
If the president's approval rating sinks into the 30% range, significant disruptions to the government and ruling party's state affairs are unavoidable. Immediately, the voices of the pro-Cheong faction that clashed with leader Kim Min-seok throughout the convention could gain strength, and Kim himself could start to reconsider walking with the president. Shin Yul, a professor of political science and international relations at Myongji University, said, "In parliamentary countries, when the approval rating falls into the 30% range, there is talk that a general election should be held again," adding, "If the president's approval rating falls further, voices shaking things from inside and outside the party will emerge, making it impossible to properly run state affairs."
It was the same under past administrations. Former Presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Yoon Suk-yeol saw their approval ratings fall into the 30% range early in their terms and failed to recover. Former President Park Geun-hye's approval rating also sank into the 30% range due to the leak scandal involving the Jeong Yun-hoe documents, and former President Moon Jae-in fell into the 30% range in the latter half of the term. Regardless of the administration, an approval rating in the "30% range" was the signal flare marking the start of a presidential lame-duck period.
Professor Shin said, "Attention should be paid to the point that the Democratic Party's approval rating and the president's approval rating are reversing," noting, "If this happens, voices from the non-pro-Lee faction within the party could grow louder, and it becomes a situation where they can shake the president without burden."
Kim Ou-joon, a broadcaster with a pro-ruling-party bent, also predicted that as Kim Yong, former deputy head of the Democratic Research Institute who represents the pro-Lee faction, lost his bid for the Supreme Council, "Lawmakers will start to question whether touting oneself as pro-Lee helps one's own politics and one's own election." The meaning is that the drop in the president's approval rating could fuel this trend.
The Democratic Party also appears deeply anxious about the drop in the president's approval rating. At the party-government-presidential office meeting held on the 23rd, the Democratic Party said it "strongly asked the government not to distinguish between residence and non-residence for single-home owners." Although the tax reform plan is to be discussed and decided in the National Assembly anyway, the advance messaging is being interpreted as taking into account public backlash against real estate policy.
What efforts are needed for the president's approval rating to rebound? Professor Shin advised, "Responsiveness to public opinion needs to be strengthened." Shin said, "More than 60% opposed abolishing supplementary investigative authority, but it was ignored and pushed through," adding, "The same goes for real estate taxation. If responsiveness to public opinion is strengthened on these issues, there will be a breakthrough."
Cho Jin-man, a professor of political science and international relations at Duksung Women's University, noted that a turning point should be created before the Chuseok holiday. Cho said, "Early in the term there were several favorable factors such as a stock market rise, but now that it has passed one year, stocks are falling and there are no standout, tangible results for the public to feel in various areas such as real estate, security, and the party convention," adding, "As it has been one year in office, it is time to take a step back, reflect on how one has approached state affairs, and also review relations with aides and the opposition party. Mistakes should be reduced and approval should be regained starting with small performances."
The Realmeter poll mentioned in the article was conducted using an automated wireless response method. The sampling error for the president's job approval survey was ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and the response rate was 3.2%. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.