The Democratic Party of Korea's Aug. 17 convention's top two contenders are showing different approaches ahead of the key battlegrounds of Honam and the Seoul-Gyeonggi regional primaries. Candidate Kim Min-seok is working to cement a "bandwagon theory" based on earlier primary results and opinion polls, while candidate Jung Chung-rae is seeking a breakthrough centered on the so-called "underdog frame."
The two candidates headed to Honam on the 11th, when voting by dues-paying members began. Kim visited Hyundai Motor's Jeonju plant in North Jeolla in the morning to greet workers at the start of their shift. He then held a press conference at the North Jeolla Provincial Council and released his "North Jeolla mega plan" pledge. It appears aimed at showing he can align with the government's state administration while dispelling the notion of "North Jeolla being sidelined."
Kim's camp, through a news release, emphasized that it "formed a bandwagon theory" in the party leadership race and said it would transform North Jeolla into a "strong small mega North Jeolla." Behind his direct mention of a "bandwagon theory" are the earlier primary results. So far, Kim's vote share without applying weighted points for strategic regions is 46.01%, 1.48 percentage points (p) higher than Jung's 44.53%.
An opinion poll released that day showing a "lead outside the margin of error" also boosted confidence. According to a Realmeter poll of 1,053 Democratic Party of Korea supporters and unaffiliated voters aged 18 and older nationwide conducted on the 9th-10th, Kim had 46.8% and Jung had 35.2%. The gap between Kim and Jung is 11.6 percentage points, outside the margin of error.
Jung held a meeting with professional groups in Gwangju, then crossed to Gwangyang for a meeting with party members. He is scheduled to campaign in Yeosu afterward. He is highlighting the so-called "underdog frame," being attacked by both Kim and Song Young-gil.
Jung posted five messages on Facebook that day alone, appealing to dues-paying members for support. "Just as Roh Moo-hyun's wind beat Lee In-je's organization in 2002, let Jung Chung-rae's wind defeat Kim Min-seok's organization," and "Without Honam, there would be no democracy. Mothers and fathers of Honam, please protect Jung Chung-rae," they said.
He also highlighted a poll showing a "neck-and-neck race." In a survey by Ace Research commissioned by Newsis of 1,018 adults nationwide on the 9th-10th on support for the next party leader, Kim had 36.9% and Jung had 36.7%. The gap between the two in this poll was only 0.2 percentage points. Jung appealed, "We are short by 0.2%. Party members, please take the hand of Jung Chung-rae, the man of loyalty you can trust."
Online voting by Honam dues-paying members, a Democratic Party stronghold, runs from the 11th to the 14th. Online voting by Seoul-Gyeonggi dues-paying members will be held from the 12th to the 15th.
In political circles, there is a view that Kim will gain an advantage in Honam, where he released a government-led investment plan, while Jung will see favorable momentum in Seoul and Gyeonggi, where hard-core supporters are concentrated.