A poll on support among Democratic Party of Korea backers and unaffiliated voters for candidates in the Democratic Party of Korea's Aug. 17 convention for party leader found on the 11th that Kim Min-seok is running ahead beyond the margin of error.
According to a survey by Realmeter of 1,053 Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters out of 2,003 respondents age 18 or older nationwide on the 9th to 10th, Kim Min-seok had 46.8%, Jung Chung-rae 35.2%, and Song Young-gil 6.5%. The gap between Kim and Jung is 11.6 percentage points (p), outside the margin of error.
Those who said they had "no preferred candidate or don't know" came to 11.5%. When Realmeter recalculated by excluding "none or don't know" responses to derive an effective vote share, Kim had 52.9%, Jung 39.8%, and Song 7.3%.
By region, in Honam, where a traveling primary will be held on the 15th, Kim had 57.7% and Jung 28.2%. In Seoul, Kim had 39.9% and Jung 34.5%, and in Gyeonggi-Incheon, Kim had 45.5% and Jung 40.3%.
To forecast under a preferential voting system, when redistributing second-choice picks among respondents who chose Song, who placed third, Kim recorded 50.6%. That is 13.2 percentage points higher than Jung (37.4%). Excluding "none or don't know (12.1%)" responses here, Kim comes to 57.5% and Jung 42.5%.
The survey was conducted using an automated response method with random digit dialing (RDD) based on 100% wireless, randomly generated sampling. The sampling error is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters, it is ±3.0 percentage points. The response rate is 3.7%. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.