Expectations are growing that this year's total fertility rate will recover to the 0.9 range. But some also say the recent rebound alone is not enough to reverse the trend, as years of low births have already severely distorted the population structure.
On the 2nd, data from the Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS) Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) showed the total fertility rate was 0.95 in the first quarter this year, and 0.93 and 0.85 in April and May, respectively. Considering the pattern of higher birth rates in the first half and lower in the second half, officials inside and outside the government say the annual figure could top 0.9. If it does reach the 0.9 range, it would be the first time in seven years since 2019 (0.92).
The rebound signal is also evident in the number of births. Cumulative births from January to May were 122,694, up 15.2% from a year earlier. For the same period, the scale is the largest since 2019 and the growth rate is the highest since statistics began. This is seen as the result of a larger population in their 30s, more marriages, and shifting views on marriage and childbirth. There is also an outlook that annual births, which totaled 254,457 last year, could approach 300,000 this year.
The problem is the population structure. Based on the registered census, the youth population aged 0–14 last year was 5,224,936, down 24.9% from 10 years earlier. In contrast, the population aged 65 and older grew 62.0% over the same period, from the 6.61 million range to the 10.72 million range, surpassing 10 million. Those aged 85 and older, the very elderly, surged more than twofold from the 520,000 range to the 1.14 million range.
Accordingly, the youth share of the total population last year was only 10.1%, while the elderly accounted for 20.7%. According to the National Assembly Budget Office, as of April this year the share of the elderly rose to 21.7%, signaling a full-fledged entry into a super-aged society. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also recommended structural reforms and medium-term fiscal consolidation to address low births and aging in last month's report on the Korean economy.