Ahead of the Aug. 17 convention to elect the next leadership of the Democratic Party of Korea, a poll showed a sharp split between the general public and the Democratic Party support base. In overall public opinion, former leader Jung Chung-rae was ahead, while within party sentiment there was a pronounced tilt toward Prime Minister Kim Min-seok.
According to a Democratic Party next leader poll conducted by polling firm Mediatomato for Newstomato on the 22nd–23rd, in a three-way race Jung, the former leader, ranked first within the margin of error at 30.0%. Prime Minister Kim Min-seok followed at 25.5%, and lawmaker Song Young-gil at 14.2%. The Democratic Party convention is widely expected to be a three-way contest among former leader Jung Chung-rae, Prime Minister Kim Min-seok, and lawmaker Song Young-gil.
Narrowing the scope to the Democratic Party support base, which mainly includes dues-paying members, the landscape shifts markedly. Prime Minister Kim Min-seok took the lead outside the margin of error with 46.1% support, while former leader Jung Chung-rae stood at 26.5% and lawmaker Song Young-gil at 18.8%. In the "party sentiment" centered on members and supporters, support coalesced clearly around Kim.
This Democratic Party convention will elect the leader by reflecting 70% from delegate and dues-paying member votes and 30% from a public opinion poll. As the "one person, one vote system," which adjusts the ratio between delegate votes and dues-paying member votes from roughly 20-to-1 to about 1-to-1, is being applied for the first time, the influence of party sentiment is expected to grow further.
The same trend held in a head-to-head matchup. Among all respondents, former leader Jung recorded 34.0% and Prime Minister Kim 33.0%, with Jung narrowly ahead in a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error. However, among Democratic Party supporters, Prime Minister Kim surged to 57.9%, well over a majority, while former leader Jung remained at 29.8%, widening the gap significantly.
The survey was conducted nationwide using an automated response system to wireless phone calls with 1,035 respondents aged 18 or older. The sampling error was ±3.0% at the 95% confidence level. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.