As President Lee Jae-myung replaces senior secretaries and other aides at Cheong Wa Dae, expectations are rising that the second-term Cabinet will also undergo a major shake-up. The move appears aimed at reversing the presidential approval rating, which fell for five straight weeks around the June 3 local elections, and at restoring governing momentum in the administration's second year. However, since conflicts between the ruling party and the presidential office stemming from the ruling camp's power struggle over succession are cited as the main cause of the sharp drop in approval ratings, it is unclear whether a reshuffle without resolving those rifts will be an effective way to break the current impasse.
Cheong Wa Dae on the 22nd said that the public's negative assessment of the president's job performance outpacing the positive assessment for the first time since the inauguration was "a result that comprehensively reflects the public's perception of the livelihood economy and their overall evaluation of state affairs," adding, "We take this gravely and with humility, and we will look even more closely at what the people are worried about and what they hope for." This suggests a higher possibility of carrying out at least a mid-level Cabinet reshuffle in light of critical public opinion.
The timing of the reshuffle is tied to the National Assembly confirmation schedule for Prime Minister nominee Han Seong-sook. On the 19th, while delivering positions on domestic and international issues, including the results of a European tour, President Lee said, "I cannot receive a personnel recommendation from a prime minister who is set to step down." Therefore, the reshuffle is expected in early next month, after the confirmation hearing for Han, scheduled for the 25th–26th, and the National Assembly approval process are completed.
Although President Lee said the same day that he had "not yet thought in depth about which ministries" to change, political circles believe much of the scope has already been set. The Ministry of Health and Welfare, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of SMEs and Startups, and the Financial Services Commission are being mentioned as targets. The Prime Minister's Office has already led evaluations of the work of ministers and vice ministers of each ministry, and the reshuffle targets are being determined by scoring their overall ability to manage state affairs.
Forecasts about the reshuffle shifted largely around the local elections. Initially, the dominant view favored continuity, expecting only a minor reshuffle. That was based on projections of a landslide victory and expectations that the policy line would not change much. However, after defeats in cities including Seoul and Busan, projections emerged of at least a mid-level overhaul. Still, the economic policy line, including on real estate, is likely to be maintained. Although President Lee the previous day appointed new senior secretaries for civil affairs, public relations, and social affairs at Cheong Wa Dae and a vice administrator at the Office of National Security, there were no changes to the economic line.
A ruling camp official said, "If the first term was about correcting abnormalities across the nation back to normal, the second term is Cheong Wa Dae's plan to accelerate policy tasks in earnest as a 'government that works,'" adding, "The president is fully aware of the declining approval ratings, which is why a direct message was delivered, and there is a high possibility of seeking a turnaround through personnel appointments."