An analysis found that after 2081, all of Korea except Yeongseo in Gangwon could shift to a subtropical climate. For now, a subtropical climate is observed only in parts of Jeju Island and the southern coast. Yeongseo in Gangwon sits at a higher latitude and is relatively cooler. Even at the same latitude, Yeongdong borders the sea, so once temperatures rise, they do not easily fall.
The Korea Meteorological Administration on the 16th released "The current status and outlook of Korea's subtropical climate characteristics." Under the Trewartha classification, known to best reflect global vegetation zones, a subtropical climate is defined as having an average temperature in the coldest month of 18℃ or lower and at least eight months with a monthly average temperature of 10℃ or higher.
When the Korea Meteorological Administration analyzed temperatures from 1981 to 2010 at 66 sites nationwide, southern coastal areas such as Jeju, Busan, Yeosu and Mokpo met the conditions for a subtropical climate. From April to October, for a total of seven months, the monthly average temperature was 10℃ or higher, and as overall temperatures rose, even the March average exceeded 10℃. Expanding the survey through 2020 showed that Ulsan also satisfied subtropical climate conditions.
The central region was observed to have a temperate climate, the stage just before subtropical. However, rising average temperatures in Boryung, Cheongju and Daejeon showed results close to subtropical conditions.
According to the Korea Meteorological Administration's analysis of future climate change, under a high-carbon scenario (assuming heavy fossil fuel use and city-centered development), most regions nationwide except Yeongseo in Gangwon would shift to a subtropical climate in the late 21st century (2081–2100). Under a low-carbon scenario (assuming minimal fossil fuel use due to advances in renewable energy technologies), a subtropical climate would be observed only in South Jeolla and South Gyeongsang.
The Korea Meteorological Administration said, "We analyzed using observed temperature and precipitation data and future projections based on the national climate change standard scenarios," adding, "Whether those regions have actually transitioned to a subtropical climate needs further review considering ecosystem and environmental changes."
Lee Mi-seon, administrator of the Korea Meteorological Administration, said, "Climate change goes beyond simple temperature increases and has broad impacts on people's lives and society as a whole, so we will strengthen our preemptive responses to the climate crisis."