Cracks have appeared in President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating, which had held firm for a year after inauguration. A survey also found the People Power Party ahead of the Democratic Party of Korea in party support, a lead that had not flipped even after the martial law–impeachment turmoil. Political circles see it as an approval rating shock.
In a poll of 1,002 adults nationwide conducted on the 8th–9th by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI), 50.4% positively evaluated President Lee's handling of state affairs. That is down 9.4 percentage points from the previous survey. In the second week of Apr., it was 63.4%, but in just two months it fell 13 percentage points.
Negative assessments of President Lee's job performance rose 10.5 percentage points to 45.7%. It is the first time since inauguration that positive and negative evaluations of President Lee's performance have narrowed to within the margin of error.
KSOI said, "The decline in evaluations of President Lee's governance appears to reflect that although the ruling party won the local elections, results in key battlegrounds such as the Seoul mayoral race and National Assembly by-elections fell short of expectations," adding, "Among those in their 20s and 30s, conservatives and moderates, and in Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang, the drop in positive evaluations was relatively large."
After the survey results were reported by the media, President Lee Jae-myung said, "I am sorry, fellow citizens," adding, "I will work harder with more humility, in a lower posture, reaching wider and embracing more."
A survey also found that party support has flipped. According to a poll by JoWON C&I commissioned by Straight News on the 6th–8th, the Democratic Party's support was 40.4% and the People Power Party's was 41.6%. With the Democratic Party down 4.2 percentage points and the People Power Party up 3.7 percentage points, party support reversed.
In JoWON C&I's party support surveys, the Democratic Party had consistently led the People Power Party since Feb. last year. As recently as the first week of May, the Democratic Party was at 50.8% and the People Power Party at 32.1%. But in just about a month, the standings have flipped.
In the KSOI survey released that day, the Democratic Party's support was 38.6% and the People Power Party's was 38.1%, nearly level. With the Democratic Party down 4.7 percentage points and the People Power Party up 6.5 percentage points, a gap of more than 10 percentage points disappeared at once.
Political circles believe that, following the controversy over withdrawal of prosecutions that surfaced during the local election phase, the election commission's ballot paper shortage inflicted considerable damage on the Lee Jae-myung administration and the Democratic Party. There is also talk that the Democratic Party was greatly startled by the "2030" loss of public support revealed in the Seoul mayoral election results. The sharp declines in the president's and the Democratic Party's approval ratings in post–local election polls are also seen as reflecting this situation.
Park Sung-min, head of the political consulting firm MIN, said at a forum at the National Assembly on the 9th, "If you look at the local election results, in quantitative terms the Democratic Party won more, but when you weigh them, the results tilt toward the People Power Party. That is how big the internal injuries from the Seoul mayoral race and Busan Buk-gap and Pyeongtaek-e are for the Democratic Party," adding, "In people's minds there is a strong desire to judge 'Yoon again,' while toward the president there is also the feeling that this was someone who originally shouldn't even have been able to run for president, and should keep it in check."
Park said, "What made the three Kims of the past outstanding was tuning their frequency to public sentiment and responding nimbly," adding, "Right now both the People Power Party and the Democratic Party are too far from public sentiment, and in the end it will be a contest over who returns to public sentiment first."
The KSOI survey used an ARS automated response method with wireless virtual numbers provided by the three telecom companies. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 5.8%. The JoWON C&I survey was conducted nationwide with 2,000 adults using an automated wireless phone response method. The response rate is 4.3%, and the sampling error is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For details, see the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.