In the local elections and National Assembly by-elections held on the 3rd, the Democratic Party of Korea won a landslide. Observers said President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating, which is near 60%, translated directly into support for the ruling party in the local and by-elections. The result favors the government and ruling party, which asked for stable state affairs in the administration's second year, over opposition calls to keep the administration in check. However, in the Seoul mayoral race, People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon overtook Democratic Party candidate Chong Won-o in the final count, flipping the result.
But the ballot paper shortage in the Seoul mayoral election on voting day had a bigger impact than news of the Democratic Party's landslide. On the afternoon of the 3rd, voting was halted at 14 polling stations, including in Songpa District in Seoul, due to a shortage of ballot papers. The People Power Party and the Reform Party strongly protested, demanding a halt to the Seoul mayoral vote count. The issue grew larger because the areas hit by the shortage included Songpa and Gangnam districts, strongholds of the People Power Party.
◇ Democratic Party 12 vs. People Power Party 4 in metropolitan mayors and governors… independent surge in North Jeolla also quelled
Of the 16 metropolitan mayor and governor races, the Democratic Party won 12. In Gyeonggi and Incheon, candidates Park Chan-dae and Choo Mi-ae won, respectively. However, in the Seoul mayoral race, considered the fiercest battleground, Oh Se-hoon pulled off a come-from-behind victory at the last stage of the count. As of 9 a.m., the count was not finished, but candidate Chong Won-o conceded, effectively sealing Oh's win. Chong said, "I will humbly and solemnly accept the citizens' choice. I fell short. It is all my fault."
As of 8 a.m. on the 4th, in Seoul's 25 districts, the Democratic Party led in 17 and the People Power Party in 8. The districts where the People Power Party was ahead were Yangcheon, Jung, Yongsan, Seocho, Gwangjin, Gangdong, Gangnam, and Songpa, which are sensitive to real estate sentiment.
With North Gyeongsang going to the People Power Party and South Jeolla and Gwangju to the Democratic Party, Lee Won-taek of the Democratic Party also beat independent Kim Kwan-young in the North Jeolla governor race. The North Jeolla race drew attention as a proxy battle with party leader Jung Chung-rae after Governor Kim Kwan-young, who was expelled from the Democratic Party, ran as an independent. With the party leadership concentrating its resources, the party held its stronghold. A "green light" was also lit for leader Jung Chung-rae's leadership.
The Chungcheong region, a bellwether of swing voters in the central area, was swept by the Democratic Party. Unlike the Sejong mayor and Daejeon mayor races, which saw large margins, the North Chungcheong governor and South Chungcheong governor races were expected to be close. But once the counting began, Democratic Party candidates Shin Yong-han in North Chungcheong and Park Soo-hyun in South Chungcheong led throughout and won comfortably.
In the Ulsan mayoral race, Democratic Party candidate Kim Sang-uk clinched victory early, and in the Busan mayoral race, Democratic Party candidate Chun Jae-soo beat People Power Party candidate Park Heong-joon after a close fight. The People Power Party managed only to hold Daegu. In South Gyeongsang, as of 2:30 a.m. on the 4th, the race was tight, with People Power Party candidate Park Wan-su slightly ahead.
Throughout the campaign, the Democratic Party emphasized that the terms of the metropolitan mayors and governors elected this time would match the remainder of President Lee Jae-myung's term. The argument that a ruling party victory was necessary for stable governance under the Lee Jae-myung administration appears to have resonated.
By contrast, the People Power Party, which pushed a theory of checking the administration by calling the special counsel bill to cancel the indictment "the Lee Jae-myung crime-wiping law," lost momentum. After a crushing defeat in these local elections, Jang Dong-hyeok's leadership will also be hard to recover.
◇ The return of Han Dong-hoon, the fall of Cho Kuk
In the by-elections held alongside the local elections, the fortunes diverged for former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon and Rebuilding Korea Party leader Cho Kuk. In the Busan Buk-gap by-election, Han defeated Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo by about 1,500 votes after a fierce contest. Although he failed to unify with People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik, he survived on his own in an unfavorable landscape of two conservatives versus one progressive.
With the former leader entering the National Assembly, Han is expected to emerge as the linchpin of conservative political realignment after the local elections. As it will be hard for the Jang Dong-hyeok leadership to avoid responsibility for the crushing defeat, demands will likely surge for Han to rejoin the People Power Party.
In Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi, Cho Kuk failed to win. The five-way race featured Democratic Party candidate Kim Yong-nam, People Power Party candidate Yoo Ui-dong, Cho Kuk, Progressive Party candidate Kim Jae-yeon, and Liberty and Innovation candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn. With Kim Yong-nam, Yoo Ui-dong, and Cho Kuk locked in a fierce contest, Yoo Ui-dong mustered late momentum to win.
Cho Kuk fell behind even Kim Yong-nam and finished third. Though once called a potential presidential contender, Cho not only failed to win but also trailed Kim Yong-nam to place third. Cho suffered a serious blow to his competitiveness as a presidential hopeful, and his standing will shrink significantly in future merger talks between the Democratic Party and the Rebuilding Korea Party.
In the remaining by-elections, the Democratic Party held the upper hand. In Incheon Yeonsu-gap, Song Young-gil; in Incheon Gyeyang-eul, Kim Nam-joon; in Gwangju Gwangsan-eul, Im Moon-young; in Gyeonggi Ansan-gap, Kim Nam-kuk; in Gyeonggi Hanam-gap, Lee Kwang-jae; in South Chungcheong Buyeo, Gongju and Cheongyang, Kim Young-bin; in South Chungcheong Asan-eul, Jeon Eun-soo; in North Jeolla Gunsan-gap, Kim Eui-gyeom; in North Jeolla Gunsan-eul, Park Ji-won; and in Jeju Seogwipo, Kim Sung-beom were elected or were favored to win.
For the People Power Party, Lee Jin-suk won in Dalseong, Daegu, and in Ulsan Nam-gap, People Power Party candidate Kim Tae-gyu defeated Democratic Party candidate Jeon Tae-jin.
◇ Voting halted due to ballot paper shortage; voting at 10 p.m. as well
In Seoul's Songpa, Gangnam, and Gwangjin districts, among others, voting was halted due to a shortage of ballot papers. The National Election Commission offered an explanation that it had not anticipated a high turnout, but the controversy grew as a considerable number of voters at the affected polling stations gave up voting.
The People Power Party demanded a halt to the count, saying the Seoul mayoral election had been tainted. Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok, floor leader Song Eon-seog, and Seoul mayoral candidate Oh Se-hoon all joined in criticizing the election commission and called for stopping the count and holding a re-vote.
At Polling Station No. 2 in Jamsil 7-dong, hundreds of residents who could not vote and YouTubers converged, preventing the ballot box from being taken out and effectively sealing off the polling place. Public anger grew as the election authorities failed to offer a proper explanation and the National Election Commission and the Seoul Election Commission appeared to shift responsibility to each other.
The People Power Party also said it would file a lawsuit to nullify the election. Attorney Kim Yeon-gi of the law firm Chungjeong said, "The procedural violations are too clear, so there are grounds for nullification," adding, "However, for this to be recognized by the court, the requirements are strict, and it will not be easy to establish causation."
Although the Democratic Party won in a landslide, the ballot paper shortage in the Seoul mayoral election is likely to cause confusion for some time.