In the local elections and National Assembly by-elections held on the 3rd, the Democratic Party of Korea won by a landslide. Observers said President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating, which is close to 60%, translated directly into support for the ruling party in the local and by-elections. The result indicates momentum for the government and ruling party, which asked for stable state affairs in the administration's second year, rather than for the opposition's calls to check the government.
However, on the day of the main vote, a shortage of ballot papers in the Seoul mayoral race had more impact than news of the Democratic Party's landslide. On the afternoon of the 3rd, voting was suspended at 14 polling stations, including in Songpa District, Seoul, due to a shortage of ballot papers. The People Power Party and the Reform Party protested strongly, demanding a halt to the Seoul mayoral vote count. The problem grew because the shortage occurred in Songpa and Gangnam, strongholds of the People Power Party.
◇ Democratic Party 13, People Power 3 in metropolitan chiefs … independent surge in North Jeolla also quelled
The Democratic Party won in 13 of the 16 metropolitan mayor and governor races. In the Seoul metropolitan area of Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon, candidates Chong Won-o, Park Chan-dae and Choo Mi-ae won respectively. In the Seoul mayoral race, considered the biggest battleground, Democratic Party candidate Chong Won-o led People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon by more than 10 percentage points.
In Seoul's 25 districts, as of 3 a.m. on the 4th, Democratic Party candidates were ahead in 21 districts except for Gangnam, Seocho, Jung and Dongjak. Public sentiment in the capital region fully backed the Lee Jae-myung administration.
With North Gyeongsang and South Jeolla–Gwangju going to the People Power Party and the Democratic Party respectively, in the North Jeolla governor's race, Democratic Party candidate Lee Won-taek also defeated independent candidate Kim Kwan-young. The North Jeolla race drew attention as a proxy battle with party leader Jung Chung-rae after Governor Kim Kwan-young, expelled from the Democratic Party, ran as an independent. With the party leadership concentrating its resources, it held its home turf. A "green light" also came on for leader Jung Chung-rae's leadership.
The Chungcheong region, a barometer of swing-voter sentiment, was also swept by the Democratic Party. Unlike the Sejong and Daejeon mayoral races where the margins were large, the North Chungcheong and South Chungcheong governor races were expected to be close. But once the counting began, Democratic Party candidates Shin Yong-han in North Chungcheong and Park Soo-hyun in South Chungcheong stayed ahead throughout and won comfortably.
In the Ulsan mayoral race, Democratic Party candidate Kim Sang-uk clinched victory early, and in the Busan mayoral race, Democratic Party candidate Chun Jae-soo defeated People Power Party candidate Park Heong-joon after a tight contest. The People Power Party held on only to Daegu. In South Gyeongsang, as of 2:30 a.m. on the 4th, People Power Party candidate Park Wan-su held a narrow lead in a close race.
Throughout the campaign, the Democratic Party stressed that the term of the metropolitan chiefs elected this time would be the same as President Lee Jae-myung's remaining term. The argument that a ruling party victory is needed for stable governance under the Lee Jae-myung administration appears to have resonated.
By contrast, the People Power Party, which pushed for a theory of checking the administration by calling the special prosecutor bill to cancel indictments the "Lee Jae-myung crime-wiping bill," lost steam. Having lost both Seoul and Busan, seen as decisive in these local elections, Jang Dong-hyeok's leadership also faces an uphill battle to recover.
◇ The return of Han Dong-hoon, the fall of Cho Kuk
In the by-elections held alongside the local elections, fortunes diverged for former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon and Rebuilding Korea Party leader Cho Kuk. In the Busan Buk-gap by-election, Han Dong-hoon won by about 1,500 votes after a fierce neck-and-neck race with Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo. Although he failed to unify candidacies with People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik, he survived on his own in an unfavorable landscape of two conservatives and one progressive.
With the former leader entering the National Assembly, he is expected to emerge as the nucleus of a conservative realignment to unfold after the local elections. As Jang Dong-hyeok's leadership can hardly avoid responsibility for the local election debacle, calls for the former leader to rejoin the People Power Party are likely to grow.
In Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi, Cho Kuk fell short. The five-way race featured Democratic Party candidate Kim Yong-nam, People Power Party candidate Yoo Ui-dong, Cho Kuk, Progressive Party candidate Kim Jae-yeon, and Liberty and Innovation candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn. With Kim Yong-nam, Yoo Ui-dong and Cho Kuk locked in a fierce contest, Yoo Ui-dong showed late momentum to win.
Cho Kuk also trailed Kim Yong-nam and finished third. Cho, once called a potential presidential contender, not only failed to win but even fell behind Kim Yong-nam to place third. Cho suffered a critical blow to his presidential prospects, and his standing in any future merger talks between the Democratic Party and the Rebuilding Korea Party will shrink significantly.
In the remaining by-elections, the Democratic Party held the upper hand. In Incheon Yeonsu-gap, Song Young-gil; in Incheon Gyeyang-eul, Kim Nam-joon; in Gwangju Gwangsan-eul, Lim Moon-young; in Gyeonggi Ansan-gap, Kim Nam-kuk; in Gyeonggi Hanam-gap, Lee Kwang-jae; in South Chungcheong Buyeo–Gongju–Cheongyang, Kim Young-bin; in South Chungcheong Asan-eul, Jeon Eun-su; in North Jeolla Gunsan-gap, Kim Eui-kyeom; in North Jeolla Gunsan-eul, Park Ji-won; and in Jeju Seogwipo, Kim Sung-beom were elected or were likely to win.
In the People Power Party, Lee Jin-sook won in Dalseong, Daegu, and in Ulsan Nam-gap, People Power Party candidate Kim Tae-gyu was ahead of Democratic Party candidate Jeon Tae-jin.
◇ Voting halted over ballot paper shortages, voting even at 10 p.m.
In Seoul's Songpa, Gangnam and Gwangjin districts, among others, voting was suspended due to ballot paper shortages. The National Election Commission offered an explanation that it had not anticipated a high turnout, but controversy grew as a significant number of voters at the affected polling stations gave up voting.
The People Power Party demanded a halt to the count, saying the Seoul mayoral race was tainted. Leader Jang Dong-hyeok, floor leader Song Eon-seog and Seoul mayoral candidate Oh Se-hoon criticized the election authorities and called for a halt to the count and a re-vote.
At Jamsil 7-dong's No. 2 polling station, hundreds of residents who could not vote and YouTubers gathered, preventing the ballot box from being taken out and effectively blockading the polling station. Public anger rose as the election authorities failed to offer a proper explanation and the National Election Commission and the Seoul election commission appeared to shift responsibility to each other.
The People Power Party also said it would file a lawsuit to nullify the election. Attorney Kim Yeon-gi of the law firm Chungjeong said, "Because the procedural violations are so clear, there are grounds for invalidating the election," adding, "However, the requirements are strict for the courts to accept this, and it will not be easy to establish causation."
Although it ended in a Democratic Party landslide, the ballot paper shortage in the Seoul mayoral race is likely to fuel turmoil for some time. A political source said, "It is questionable whether the People Power Party will concede the result of the Seoul mayoral race, which drew the most attention," adding, "From the perspective of Jang Dong-hyeok's leadership, which suffered a crushing defeat in the elections, conceding Seoul would be tantamount to relinquishing control of the party, so they are likely to keep raising their voices until the end."