In the June 3 local elections and National Assembly by-elections, North Buk-gap in Busan, Jeonbuk, and Pyeongtaek-e in Gyeonggi are cited as the "big three battlegrounds." That is because the winners there could bring considerable changes to the political landscape of the ruling and opposition parties. In political circles, people say these are "regions that offer interesting viewing points regardless of the overall election results."
◇ Jeonbuk, the biggest battleground inside the Democratic Party… "A major variable for Jung Chung-rae's bid to stay on as party leader"
Among the metropolitan mayor and governor races, the region the Democratic Party of Korea focused on most is Jeonbuk. Facing the independent incumbent candidate Kim Kwan-young, who was expelled over allegations of cash handouts, the Democratic Party of Korea put forward Lee Won-taek and went all in. As the race tightened, the party leadership poured out daily commentaries and remarks criticizing Kim Kwan-young.
In political circles, people say "the Jeonbuk governor race is turning into something like a 'vote for or against Jung Chung-rae.'" In fact, Kim Kwan-young raised the "judge Jung Chung-rae" line during the campaign. If Kim wins, Jung Chung-rae could face significant pressure at the party convention in August. Jeonbuk is home to 190,000 dues-paying members of the Democratic Party of Korea and can wield tremendous influence in elections to choose the party leadership.
◇ If Han Dong-hoon wins in Busan Buk-gap, what happens to People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok's system…
In the Busan Buk-gap National Assembly by-election, independent candidate Han Dong-hoon, Democratic Party of Korea candidate Ha Jung-woo, a former presidential office senior secretary for AI future planning, and People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik have been locked in a three-way race. Busan Buk-gap is drawing attention because, depending on the result, it could affect the leadership system of People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok.
Han Dong-hoon ran as an independent after being expelled from the People Power Party over the party members' message board incident. If he wins this time, there is speculation he will enter the Assembly and then run for party leader. He is expected to emerge as a contender for the next presidential race through that path.
A political figure said, "Leader Jang mobilized various means to block Han's candidacy during this by-election process but failed, and despite concerns over splitting the conservative vote, he nominated Park," adding, "If Han wins, he and Jang will have no choice but to face off."
◇ In Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek-e, Democratic Party of Korea vs. Rebuilding Korea Party wage an all-out intramural fight in the broader pro-government camp
The Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek-e National Assembly by-election drew attention as a "family fight within the broader pro-government camp" between Democratic Party of Korea candidate Kim Yong-nam and Rebuilding Korea Party candidate Cho Guk. Early in the race, a single-candidate merger between the two was floated, but the rift between the two parties only deepened. The Rebuilding Korea Party zeroed in on Kim Yong-nam's alleged "operation of a lending company under a borrowed name." In response, the Democratic Party of Korea labeled Cho as a "fake Democratic Party candidate."
The Democratic Party of Korea and the Rebuilding Korea Party had been discussing a merger before this election but halted the talks. Lee Hae-min, the Rebuilding Korea Party's secretary-general, said the day before, "Cho must win for the value of unification to be achieved in the quickest time." That was taken to mean the merger talks would be suspended if Cho does not win.
In political circles, people say "if Cho loses this election, his footing as a politician will likely become very narrow."
◇ The ruling camp once talked up "15 to 1" early on… now 6 to 8 toss-up races
The biggest question in these local elections is how many metropolitan mayor and governor posts each side will capture. Early in the cycle, some inside the Democratic Party of Korea even predicted a "15 to 1" sweep, saying it could win everywhere except North Gyeongsang, but recently the number of toss-ups has surged. The Democratic Party of Korea sees six toss-ups—South Gyeongsang, Daegu, Busan, Seoul, Ulsan, and Jeonbuk—while the People Power Party sees eight—Gangwon, South Gyeongsang, Daejeon, Busan, Seoul, Ulsan, South Chungcheong, and North Chungcheong. Seoul, where Democratic Party of Korea candidate Chong Won-o faces People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon, is classified as a toss-up by both parties.
A political source said, "Ahead of the local elections, moves like introducing a special counsel bill with a provision to drop indictments and the 'older brother controversy' made the Democratic Party of Korea dock its own points," adding, "As the race entered the final stretch, the fact that each party went on an all-out slugfest likely affected voters as well."