In the June 3 local elections and National Assembly by-elections, North Gap in Busan, Jeonbuk, and Pyeongtaek-eul in Gyeonggi are cited as the big three battlegrounds. That is because, depending on who wins, they could bring significant changes to the political landscape of the ruling and opposition parties. In political circles, people say these are "regions that show interesting viewing points regardless of the overall election results."

Democratic Party of Korea leader Jung Chung-rae and People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok./Courtesy of News1

◇ The biggest battleground inside the Democratic Party, "Jeonbuk"… "A major variable for Jung Chung-rae's bid to stay on as party leader"

In this metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial race, the area the Democratic Party focused on most is Jeonbuk. Facing independent candidate and "incumbent" Kim Kwan-young, who was expelled over allegations of cash handouts, the Democratic Party put forward Lee Won-taek and launched an all-out campaign. As the race tightened, the Democratic Party leadership poured out statements and commentary criticizing Kim Kwan-young day after day.

In political circles, people say "the Jeonbuk governor's race is becoming like a 'vote for or against Jung Chung-rae.'" In fact, Kim Kwan-young raised a "judge Jung Chung-rae" line during the campaign. If Kim wins, Jung Chung-rae could face considerable pressure at the party convention in Aug. this year. Jeonbuk is home to 190,000 Democratic Party dues-paying members, who can wield formidable influence in elections to choose the party leadership.

Democratic Party of Korea candidate Ha Jung-woo, People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik, and independent candidate Han Dong-hoon, who are running in the Busan Buk-gap National Assembly by-election, hold press conferences on the 1st at the Busan City Council in Yeonje-gu and at their campaign offices in Busan./Courtesy of Yonhap News

◇ If "North Gap in Busan" elects Han Dong-hoon, what becomes of People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok's system…

In the North Gap, Busan National Assembly by-election, independent candidate Han Dong-hoon, Ha Jung-woo of the Democratic Party, a former senior presidential secretary for AI future planning, and People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik have waged a three-way contest. North Gap in Busan is drawing attention because, depending on the result, it could affect the leadership system of People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok.

Han Dong-hoon ran as an independent after being expelled from the People Power Party over the party member bulletin board incident. If elected this time, there is speculation he will enter the Assembly and then challenge for the party leadership. He is expected to emerge as a contender for the next presidential race through that path.

An insider in political circles said, "Leader Jang mobilized various means to block Han's candidacy during this by-election process but failed, and despite concerns about splitting the conservative vote, he nominated Park," adding, "If Han wins, he will have no choice but to face off against Jang."

Democratic Party of Korea Pyeongtaek-eul candidate Kim Yong-nam and Rebuilding Korea Party Pyeongtaek-eul candidate Cho Kuk./Courtesy of News1

◇ "Pyeongtaek-eul in Gyeonggi" Democratic Party vs. Rebuilding Korea Party, an all-out intra-camp brawl

The Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi National Assembly by-election drew attention as a "family fight within the broader pro-government camp" between Democratic Party candidate Kim Yong-nam and Rebuilding Korea Party candidate Cho Kuk. Even early in the race, the possibility of a single candidacy between the two was mentioned, but the rift between the two parties only deepened. The Rebuilding Korea Party zeroed in on Kim Yong-nam's "alleged operation of a loan company under a borrowed name." In response, the Democratic Party branded Cho as a "fake Democratic Party candidate."

Before this election, the Democratic Party and the Rebuilding Korea Party had discussed a merger but halted the talks. Lee Hae-min, the Rebuilding Korea Party's secretary-general, said the day before, "Only if Cho wins will the value of integration be achieved in the shortest time." It was taken to mean that if Cho is not elected, the merger talks would be suspended.

In political circles, people say, "If Cho loses this election, the political ground under him will likely narrow considerably."

People Power Party Seoul mayoral candidate Oh Se-hoon moves off for a stump tour after delivering a public appeal in front of Hyochang Park Station in Yongsan-gu, Seoul, on the morning of the 2nd. In the background hangs a banner for Democratic Party of Korea Seoul mayoral candidate Chong Won-o./Courtesy of News1

◇ The ruling camp touted "15 to 1" early on… now 6 to 8 swing areas

The biggest question in these local elections is how many metropolitan leaders each of the ruling and opposition parties will secure. Early on, some inside the Democratic Party even projected a "15 to 1" outcome, saying they could win everywhere except North Gyeongsang, but recently the number of toss-up areas has grown significantly. The Democratic Party sees six swing areas—South Gyeongsang, Daegu, Busan, Seoul, Ulsan, and Jeonbuk—while the People Power Party views eight—Gangwon, South Gyeongsang, Daejeon, Busan, Seoul, Ulsan, South Chungcheong, and North Chungcheong—as battlegrounds. Seoul, where Democratic Party candidate Chong Won-o faces People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon, is classified as a swing area by both parties.

A political source said, "Ahead of the local elections, the Democratic Party undercut itself with things like introducing a special prosecutor bill that included dropping the indictment, and the 'older brother controversy,'" adding, "As the race entered the final stretch, the fact that each party engaged in a slugfest likely influenced voters as well."

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