With a boom in the semiconductor industry, this year's nominal economic growth rate is expected to reach the 10% range. As nominal gross domestic product (GDP) rises sharply, macroprudential indicators that are calculated based on it, such as the household liability ratio and the government debt ratio, are also expected to improve. It will be the first time in 24 years that the nominal economic growth rate exceeds 10%.
According to the financial market and others on the 31st, the prevailing view is that this year's nominal GDP growth rate will surpass 10% for the first time since 2002 (11.0%). The nominal GDP growth rate for the first quarter, to be released on July 9, is expected to exceed 10% from a year earlier. Semiconductor prices are trending higher in the second quarter as well, and the solid pace of economic growth is also a factor.
At an economic outlook briefing on the 28th, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said, "Reflecting the sharp increase in real gross domestic income (GDI) in the first quarter and the high export prices of semiconductors, the nominal GDP growth rate will come in quite high." In its May economic outlook, the Bank of Korea (BOK) raised its forecast for this year's real economic growth rate to 2.6% from 2.0%.
Even if this year's nominal GDP growth rate increases by only 10%, applying the government's household liability management target of a "1.5% increase" for this year, the household liability-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be 81.8%, falling by a record 6.8 percentage points (p) and hitting the lowest level in 11 years.
The government aims to lower the household liability ratio to around 80% by 2030. After the household liability ratio rose to 98.7% at the end of 2021, the government at the time presented that target. Korea's household liability ratio rose from 79.2% in 2015 to 82.9% in 2016. After first entering the 80% range at that time, it rose for five consecutive years to near 100%, then fell to 88.6% at the end of last year.