On the 22nd, it was reported that after activating an "AI election analysis system" ahead of the June 3 local elections, the Democratic Party of Korea produced a forecast saying, "Of the 16 metropolitan heads, excluding Daegu and North Gyeongsang, the Democratic Party wins all 14."
On this day, ChosunBiz obtained the Democratic Party's "AI forecast report" generated through its election analysis system. The forecast was conducted by reflecting not only opinion polls but also the results of the last five elections, demographics incorporating age and ideology, and the results of 10,000 simulated matchups using randomly extracted figures within the range of support rates between candidates. Democratic Party Secretary-General Cho Seung-rae said on the 4th, "In this election, we are activating the AI prediction system 'Oracle EyE,'" adding, "Based on this, we are using it to develop election strategy."
According to the Democratic Party's "AI forecast report," among the 16 metropolitan heads nationwide, Democratic Party candidates are predicted as "certain to win" in 14 areas, excluding Daegu and North Gyeongsang. The forecast categorizes the likelihood of winning as certain, likely, or competitive. In both Daegu and North Gyeongsang, the Democratic Party predicts the People Power Party is "certain to win."
In Daegu, the Democratic Party's AI forecast shows Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum losing to People Power Party candidate Choo Kyung-ho. The AI predicted candidate support at 40.1% for Choo Kyung-ho and 29.5% for Kim Boo-kyum. That differs from recent opinion polls indicating the two are in a close race within the margin of error.
The Democratic Party says this difference stems from the AI election analysis system's forecasting method being different from general opinion polls. A Democratic Party official said, "The AI forecast reflects the results of the last five elections, and in that time the People Power Party candidate has won every time in Daegu, so in this AI forecast there is an aspect where Kim Boo-kyum's support rate and chances of winning are evaluated low."
On this, an opinion poll expert said, "It cannot be said that the Democratic Party's AI forecast matches the actual election results." The Democratic Party's AI forecast was calculated as of May 16, and there could be many political variables until election day.
There is also criticism that, just as the exit polls by the three major broadcasters in past local elections differed greatly from the actual results, it is difficult to assess the reliability of this first attempt at an AI forecast.