A poll on the 14th showed Democratic Party of Korea Seoul mayoral candidate Chong Won-o and People Power Party Seoul mayoral candidate Oh Se-hoon in a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error. Chong's support was 44.9%, and Oh's was 39.8%. The 5.1 percentage point gap was within the sample margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. The survey was conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) for CBS on 1,002 Seoul residents ages 18 and older on the 12th-13th.
Media coverage focused on the gap between Chong and Oh narrowing within the margin of error. But Chong's camp read it differently. A key campaign official said, "If you look only at the four Gangnam districts, Chong and Oh came out almost the same," adding, "If the race is this close in the four Gangnam districts, which are strong for the People Power Party, we judge the overall landscape is not a problem."
◇KSOI: looking only at the "four Gangnam districts," Chong Won-o 43.6%, Oh Se-hoon 44.4%
The KSOI poll divided Seoul into four zones. Seocho, Gangnam, Songpa, and Gangdong—commonly called the "four Gangnam districts"—were grouped into the same zone.
The four Gangnam districts have traditionally shown high support for conservative candidates. In the 2022 local elections, Oh Se-hoon beat then-Democratic Party candidate Song Young-gil by a wide margin in the four Gangnam districts. In Gangnam District, Oh won 74.3%, defeating Song (24.4%). Seocho, Songpa, and Gangdong showed a similar pattern.
But in this KSOI poll, Chong Won-o and Oh Se-hoon were shown to be in a close race in the four Gangnam districts. Chong posted 43.6% support, and Oh had 44.4%.
A Democratic Party official said, "There has never been such a close race in the four Gangnam districts." Even in the 2018 local elections, when former Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon beat a conservative candidate, Park's vote share in Gangnam and Seocho was lower than the conservative candidates' (Kim Moon-soo and Ahn Cheol-soo).
A People Power Party official also said, "The variable is that Oh's support in the Gangnam area is not rising as much as expected."
◇Chong Won-o forms a special committee for the four Gangnam districts… makes the missing rebar at GTX Samseong Station a key issue
Chong's camp sees victory or defeat in this election as hinging on targeting the "four Gangnam districts." On the 8th, Chong visited a reconstruction and maintenance project complex in Songpa District, Seoul, and proposed setting up a party-level special committee to resolve pending issues in the "four Gangnam districts." Chong said, "In the four Gangnam districts, and further along the Han River belt, the party and the Seoul Metropolitan Government should firmly back up the Lee Jae-myung administration's competence."
The Democratic Party immediately accepted Chong's proposal. It formed a "special committee for the four Gangnam districts" chaired by party Policy Committee Chairperson Han Jeong-ae.
Chong is responding sensitively to various issues arising in the Gangnam area. After the problem of missing rebar in the GTX-A Samseong Station section became known, Chong visited the station himself and moved to make it a point of contention. At the site on the 17th, Chong said, "This lays bare Seoul City's irresponsible insensitivity to safety," adding, "I want (Oh) to answer when the shoddy construction incident was first reported to him and what measures were taken."
Analysts also see the rollout of bold tax cuts such as property tax reductions as a move to target Gangnam. A political source said, "The general analysis is that Chong is stably ahead in the rest of the city excluding the four Gangnam districts," adding, "Like President Lee Jae-myung, who puts pragmatism first, Chong seems to be showing a different tack from the existing Democratic Party to win Gangnam voters."
※ The poll cited in this article was conducted by 100% automated response (ARS) to mobile phones, with a response rate of 5.3% and a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.