In the by-elections for National Assembly seats in Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi Province, and Buk-gap, Busan, "single-candidate consolidation" has emerged as the biggest issue. That is because the results could change depending on whether progressive candidates or conservative candidates consolidate.
The "golden time" for the consolidation effect to fully kick in is until midnight on the 17th. If consolidation is achieved by then, the ballot will be marked "withdrawn" for the candidate who steps down. By contrast, after the 18th, when ballot printing begins, even if consolidation happens, the "withdrawn" mark may not be printed. Votes cast for a withdrawn candidate would be wasted votes, making it hard for the consolidation effect to materialize.
On the 14th, some in political circles said the "countdown" has begun on single-candidate consolidation in Pyeongtaek-eul and Busan Buk-gap because the by-elections are 20 days away.
◇ Pyeongtaek-eul: both the Democratic Party of Korea and the Rebuilding Korea Party are reluctant to consolidate
In a candidate support poll of 501 residents aged 18 or older in Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi Province, conducted by Gallup Korea on behalf of News1 on the 12th-13th, Democratic Party of Korea candidate Kim Yong-nam had 29%, Rebuilding Korea Party candidate Cho Kuk had 24%, People Power Party candidate Yoo Ui-dong had 20%, Liberty and Innovation candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn had 8%, and The Progressive Party candidate Kim Jae-yeon had 4%. If the conservative camp candidates (Yoo Ui-dong and Hwang Kyo-ahn) were to consolidate, their support could become similar to that of the progressive camp candidates.
Consolidation math on the progressive side is complicated. Candidates Kim Yong-nam and Cho Kuk appear focused on checking each other within the progressive camp rather than checking the conservative camp. Cho posted on Facebook to the effect that "Kim is a prosecutorialist," and Kim took aim at Cho's "Pyeongtaek-gun slip." The leadership of both the Democratic Party of Korea and the Rebuilding Korea Party are also reluctant to consolidate.
◇ Busan Buk-gap: Park Min-sik says "don't even dream of consolidation" vs. Han Dong-hoon says "nothing is absolutely impossible"
In a poll of 508 residents aged 18 or older in Busan Buk-gap, commissioned by News1 to Gallup Korea and conducted on the 12th-13th, Democratic Party of Korea candidate Ha Jung-woo had 39%, independent candidate Han Dong-hoon had 29%, and People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik had 21%. A simple sum of support for Park and Han would put them ahead of Ha.
Park and Han currently differ in their stance on consolidation. Meeting reporters at his campaign office on the 13th, Park said the likelihood of consolidation was "100% zero. Don't even dream of it." By contrast, appearing on SBS Radio on the 11th, Han said, "Nothing is absolutely impossible," leaving the door open to consolidation.
The two polls cited in this article were conducted via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) using randomly generated virtual wireless phone numbers. The response rate was 11.3% in Busan Buk-gap and 10.0% in Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi Province. The margin of error was ±4.3 percentage points (p) at a 95% confidence level in Buk-gap and ±4.4 p at a 95% confidence level in Pyeongtaek-eul. For details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.