Dwelling supply has emerged as a key issue in the Seoul mayoral race. Democratic Party of Korea candidate Chong Won-o and People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon are trading barbs.
Lately, the "villa debate" has flared. Chong said that during Oh's tenure as Seoul mayor, dwelling output fell sharply compared with the average of the previous 10 years, and proposed expanding villa supply as one of the measures. Oh's side countered, saying, "He lives in an apartment while telling citizens to live in villas." So what are the actual dwelling supply results in Seoul? And how large is the share of villas?
◇Average annual permits in 2022–2024 were halved from the previous 10 years
An analysis of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport statistics on dwelling construction performance on the 7th showed that from 2012 to 2021, the average annual number of permits for Seoul apartments and villas was 81,575 units. During the same period, starts were 79,081 units and completions were 75,014 units.
By contrast, the average annual number of permits over the three years from 2022 to 2024 was 44,313 units. Starts were 40,724 units and completions were 48,364 units. Compared with the 10-year average, permits were only 54.32%, starts 51.50%, and completions 64.47%. Permits and starts were effectively cut in half.
On the 29th, Chong said, "During Oh's time as mayor, Seoul's dwelling supply was not sufficient," citing related statistics. Chong said, "From 2022 to 2024, supply of apartments and villas was only 62% in permits, 58% in starts, and 71% in completions compared with the previous 10 years," and the actual statistics show levels similar to what Chong pointed out, or even lower.
◇The cause is "villas"… completion share plunged from 61% to 15%
The reason behind the deterioration in Seoul's dwelling supply indicators is "villas." Commonly including multi-household and row houses, villas are multi-family dwellings of four stories or fewer. If a building's total floor area per building is 660㎡ or less, it is multi-household; 660㎡ or more is a row house. Among single-family dwellings, multi-unit houses are sometimes treated as villas. This analysis included multi-unit houses.
Villas were central to Seoul's dwelling supply. In 2016 alone, 56,225 villa units were completed, accounting for 61.37% of the total apartment and villa completions (91,613 units). Since then, however, villa supply has been on a downhill trend.
There was a yearly decline: 42,798 units in 2017, 35,006 in 2018, 25,524 in 2019, and 25,735 in 2020. The downtrend steepened after 2021. After dropping from 22,000 units in 2022 to 14,118 in 2023, it fell further to 6,123 in 2024. Over this period, the share of villas in total apartment and villa completions plunged from 59.44% to 15.65%.
◇Chong Won-o "We will also build villas" vs. Oh Se-hoon "Expand apartments"
The two candidates differ on solutions. Chong proposed increasing officetels, which can be supplied in the short term, including villas. Oh, by contrast, says he will focus on apartment supply instead of villas, which deliver fewer units.
On the 4th, Chong said, "(Oh says) redevelopment and reconstruction of apartments take 10 to 15 years, so it's not his responsibility, but that is half right and half wrong," adding, "We can craft measures for monthly rent in two to three years and also supply." He continued, "Villas, officetels, and residential-style lodging can be provided in two to three years."
Oh said he would start construction on a total of 310,000 dwelling units by 2031. It is a follow-up pledge to the announcement a day earlier to supply about 130,000 public dwellings by 2031.
◇Expert: "Villa supply is a short-term fix, but it will be hard to realize"
Experts are skeptical about supplying villas. They cite negative perceptions from past jeonse fraud cases and the Lee Jae-myung administration's real estate policy, which makes investment difficult.
Seo Jin-hyung, a professor of real estate law at Kwangwoon University, said, "Because of the trauma from jeonse fraud cases and the government's stronger one-house-per-household policy, the conditions are not there to sell villas and then lease them on jeonse," adding, "If villas don't sell, builders won't supply them."
Kwon Dae-jung, a distinguished professor in the Department of Economics and Real Estate at Hansung University, said, "If you try to supply apartments, it can take up to 10 years, but villas can be done within three months to a year," while adding, "Because many jeonse fraud cases occurred in villas, permits and completions have fallen a lot and will fall even more going forward."