The government said on the 22nd that power demand in 2040 will rise about 37% from last year (100.9 GW) to a maximum of 138.2 gigawatts (GW). Based on this outlook, the government plans to draw up the 12th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand ("12th Basic Plan").

The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment held a public forum on the 12th Basic Plan's power demand outlook on the morning of the 22nd at the Korea Broadcasting Center in Yangcheon-gu, Seoul, and released the "Provisional outlook for 2040 power demand" containing these details.

Participants discuss at the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity public forum on power-demand outlook at the Korea Broadcasting Hall in Yangcheon-gu, Seoul, on the morning of the 22nd. /Courtesy of Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment

The Basic Plan is established every two years for 15-year periods under Article 25 of the Electric Utility Act. The ministry and the master committee for establishing the Basic Plan estimate power demand and actual consumption based on gross domestic product (GDP), population, temperatures and other factors, and then devise how to supply it. The planning period for the 12th Basic Plan is from 2026 to 2040.

The ministry projected that peak power demand in 2040 will reach up to 138.2 GW, 1.4 times last year's level. This assumes an optimistic situation (an upside scenario) of higher economic growth driven by economic restructuring and the spread of artificial intelligence (AI). It is also premised on the effectiveness of energy demand-reduction policies by the Korea Electric Power Corporation, the Korea Power Exchange and others.

If the current economic growth trend continues (base scenario), the ministry sees power demand at 131.8 GW.

Advanced industries such as semiconductors, the spread of artificial intelligence (AI), and the electrification of industry are expected to drive the increase in power demand. The peak power demand of advanced-industry companies was projected at 3.7 GW, with electricity consumption at 27.4–29.3 TWh, a sharp rise from the 11th Basic Plan (based on 2038), which projected 1.4 GW and 1.1 TWh, respectively. This is seen as reflecting the recent semiconductor market, which has grown so rapidly that it departs from previous trends.

Officials monitor the power supply and demand situation at the Grid Operation Center of the Power Management Office at the Gyeonggi Headquarters of Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) in Yeongtong-gu, Suwon, Gyeonggi, in July last year. /Courtesy of News1

The government also expected annual power consumption in 2040 to reach 694.1 TWh (terawatt-hours) under the upside scenario. If realized, that would be a 26.3% increase from last year. Taking a conservative view, it projected 657.6 TWh.

Meanwhile, the government plans to keep revising the demand outlook. It will incorporate finalized data on plans to expand self-generation renewable energy and reexamine consistency with supply plans.

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