Former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon on the afternoon of the 14th made his run in the Busan Buk-gap National Assembly by-election official by filing a move-in report at the Mandok 2-dong Community Service Center in Buk-gu, Busan. After completing the report, Han met nearby residents and said, "I have run many big elections inside the party, but this is my first election with the public," adding, "I will begin and end politician Han Dong-hoon's elections here. I will put the goal of making the lives of citizens in this area better and growing the region further first and do my best."
That morning at the National Assembly, Cho, leader of the Rebuilding Korea Party, declared a run in the Pyeongtaek-eul by-election in Gyeonggi. Cho said, "I will become the 13th lawmaker of the Innovation Party and, with a hotter heart than a lawmaker from the ruling Democratic Party, take responsibility for and carry out the era's task of 'complete end to insurrection, completion of true reform.'"
With former leader Han and leader Cho formally taking the stage, interest in the June 3 by-elections is heating up. The by-elections to be held along with the local elections on June 3 have grown to the level of a "mini general election." Eleven constituencies have already been set, and up to three more could be added. Depending on the results, there could be notable changes in the distribution of seats between the ruling and opposition parties.
◇ With potential contenders stepping in, unity calculations get complicated
With Cho declaring a run in Pyeongtaek-eul, the unity math for the progressive camp has become complicated. Pyeongtaek-eul is where Kim Jae-yeon, standing leader of The Progressive Party, is preparing to run. The Progressive Party had drawn up a strategy to send Kim into the National Assembly by linking unity in the Ulsan mayoral race and unity in Pyeongtaek-eul. The plan was to yield the Ulsan mayoralty to the Democratic Party through unity and, in return, take the Pyeongtaek-eul by-election through unity.
But with Cho stepping in, that structure broke down. In the conservative camp, Hwang Kyo-ahn of the Liberty and Innovation party stepped forward, and the People Power Party is also weighing several candidates. With conservatives split, The Progressive Party and the Democratic Party would have had strong odds if they agreed to unify, but Cho's entry has made a multi-candidate race unavoidable.
On her Facebook page that day, standing leader Kim Jae-yeon said, "In Pyeongtaek, where an overwhelming victory is possible if the democratic and progressive forces unite, saying 'we will compete whether it's four-way or five-way' is instead a bad move that turns Pyeongtaek, a sure-win district, into a tough one," adding, "Withdraw the Pyeongtaek run, which has neither greater cause nor justification."
In Busan Buk-gap, where former leader Han has stepped up, unification has also emerged as the biggest issue. With Democratic Party lawmaker Chun Jae-soo running for Busan mayor, the seat is vacant, and within the Democratic Party, the chances are high that Ha Jung-woo, senior secretary for AI Future Planning at the presidential office, will be drafted. The key is whether the People Power Party will field a candidate. Within the People Power Party, former lawmaker Park Min-sik and supreme council member Kim Min-su are being mentioned as potential candidates. If, while former leader Han runs as an independent, it becomes a three-way race of two conservatives and one progressive, the Democratic Party's chances of victory will be inevitably high.
People Power Party lawmaker Kim Do-eup's proposal that the party should consider not nominating anyone or unification is in this context. But the People Power Party leadership, which harbors strong antipathy toward former leader Han, is unlikely to accept it. National Assembly Vice Speaker Joo Ho-young appeared on SBS Radio that day and said, "Buk-gap is a Democratic Party-leaning district where Democratic Party lawmaker Chun Jae-soo has won three times. Even if a People Power Party candidate runs alone, it's a toss-up, but with former leader Han running and us fielding a candidate, it's as clear as day that the Democratic Party will win," adding, "If you ask whether it's better for a Democratic Party lawmaker to win in Busan Buk-gap or for former leader Han to win, there is an answer."
◇ Where will heavyweight figures Song Young-gil and Kim Yong in the ruling camp go
The regions drawing attention in these by-elections are Gyeonggi and Incheon. Although by-elections are also set to be held in North Jeolla and Gwangju, South Chungcheong, Daegu, and Jeju, party control is unlikely to change. In contrast, in Incheon and Gyeonggi, party control could change depending on the candidates.
Hanam-gap, the district of lawmaker Choo Mi-ae, who is running for Gyeonggi governor, is a representative battleground. In the 22nd general election in 2024, Choo narrowly won there by 1.17 percentage points against former lawmaker Lee Yong, a former executive secretary to former President Yoon Suk-yeol. Given the strong conservative tilt, it is hard to guarantee a Democratic Party victory. In Hanam-gap, former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil and former deputy head of the Democratic Research Institute Kim Yong are being mentioned. In the People Power Party, alongside former lawmaker Lee Yong, there is also talk of drafting former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min.
Incheon Gyeyang-eul, which was President Lee Jae-myung's district; Incheon Yeonsu-gap, which was Democratic Party lawmaker Park Chan-dae's district; and Gyeonggi Ansan-gap, where a by-election will be held due to former lawmaker Yang Moon-seok's election being invalidated, also do not yet have clearly defined candidates. The Democratic Party plans to announce on the 17th a list of recruited talent related to strategic nominations for the by-elections, at which point a clearer picture is expected to emerge.
Whether a by-election will be held in Daegu is also a point of interest. Four sitting lawmakers participated in the People Power Party's Daegu mayoral primary. If any of lawmakers Yoo Young-ha, Yoon Jae-ok, Choo Kyung-ho, or Choi Eun-seok is confirmed as the candidate, the corresponding district will go to a by-election. People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok is said to have proposed that Lee Jin-sook, former head of the Korea Communications Commission, who was cut in the Daegu mayoral primary, shift to running in a by-election.