In a recent Korea Gallup poll, the South Gyeongsang governor race was the only metropolitan leadership contest where candidates from the Democratic Party of Korea and the People Power Party were locked in a tight race within the margin of error. The People Power Party nominated incumbent South Gyeongsang Gov. Park Wan-su, and the Democratic Party of Korea nominated former South Gyeongsang Gov. Kim Kyeong-soo. In South Gyeongsang, over the past four local elections, the Democratic Party of Korea won once, the People Power Party won twice, and an independent won once.
◇ Kim Kyeong-soo 44% · Park Wan-su 40%… South Gyeongsang governor in a close race with a 4-point gap
Korea Gallup, commissioned by Segye Ilbo, asked 806 men and women aged 18 and older living in South Gyeongsang on the 7th–8th who was more suitable for South Gyeongsang governor between Democratic Party of Korea candidate Kim Kyeong-soo and People Power Party candidate Park Wan-su. Kim received 44% support, and Park received 40%.
The survey used computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) with wireless virtual numbers randomly extracted from the three mobile carriers, and applied weights by gender, age, and region based on last month's resident registration population from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The response rate was 15.4%, and the sampling error was ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For details, see the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.
The gap in support between Kim and Park (4 percentage points) is within the margin of error. Among the polls for metropolitan leadership elections, this was the only race found to be a dead heat within the margin of error.
Traditionally in South Gyeongsang, voter sentiment differs between Changwon and Jinju, the key cities of the east and west. Changwon tends to be relatively progressive, while Jinju, the hub of western South Gyeongsang, is strongly conservative.
But there is talk that predicting the outcome of this South Gyeongsang governor race will not be easy. That is because the two candidates each have their base in areas where the rival party is strong.
◇ People Power Party candidate "from progressive-leaning Changwon" vs. Democratic Party of Korea candidate "with ties to conservative-leaning Jinju"
People Power Party candidate Park Wan-su is a three-term former Changwon mayor with political roots in Changwon, which has a strong progressive hue. By contrast, Democratic Party of Korea candidate Kim Kyeong-soo has ties to Jinju, which is strongly conservative. Kim is originally from Goseong, South Gyeongsang, but he attended elementary, middle, and high school in Jinju and previously declared his candidacy for South Gyeongsang governor in Jinju.
A political insider said, "Park is personally drawing votes in Changwon, and conversely, Kim is receiving considerable support for a Democratic Party of Korea candidate in Jinju," adding, "The landscape differs from a typical South Gyeongsang governor race, so it's hard to predict."
Another insider said, "In this local election, the place where the Democratic Party of Korea is expected to face the toughest fight is the South Gyeongsang governorship," adding, "In the South Gyeongsang governor race, support should rise together with momentum from the Busan mayoral race, but as Chun Jae-soo, running for Busan mayor, is employing a 'stillness in motion' strategy, the South Gyeongsang governor race has become more difficult."
With the matchup between Kim Kyeong-soo and Park Wan-su set early, both have already shifted into campaign mode. Recently, the two sides have been clashing over the "provincial funding share for Namhae County's basic income."
Kim first said, "As part of the 'a basic income program for rural communities' pilot project, in which 10 counties nationwide were selected, Namhae residents are set to receive 150,000 won every month," adding, "Gyeonggi and South Jeolla, which were also selected, subsidize 30% with provincial funds, but South Gyeongsang is providing only 18%."
In response, Kim Yong-dae, special public relations adviser to South Gyeongsang Province for Park's camp, said, "The province submitted a letter of commitment to shoulder 30% in provincial funds at the government's request, and as a result, Namhae County was selected as a project site," adding, "We understand not knowing South Gyeongsang's circumstances, but Kim's post is clearly false." Since then, the two sides have continued to issue statements and press releases in succession, confronting each other.