An outlook was released that the semiconductor upcycle will continue for the time being. Analysis also noted that the Middle East war will not immediately break this trend.
Bank of Korea said in a report released on the 12th, "The supply-demand imbalance is larger than in past semiconductor upcycles, and the duration is getting longer," and stated accordingly.
The core of this semiconductor boom is increased AI investment. As AI investment expands, the mix of memory products is diversifying, while demand is rising across all items. With the expansion of AI servers, demand for HBM installed in high-performance computing devices is surging, and demand for general-purpose DRAM to strengthen AI inference is also increasing.
Meanwhile, the pace of supply expansion is slower. HBM has high process complexity and requires new equipment, so it takes considerable time to ramp up production. Memory corporations have also maintained a conservative stance on capacity expansion. Bank of Korea explained, "Corporations are speeding up line expansions, but it will take time to catch up with growing demand."
Accordingly, Bank of Korea expects the semiconductor upcycle to continue for the time being. However, it said the trajectory could change depending on ▲ the timing of verifying AI investment profitability ▲ big tech's funding conditions ▲ technological efficiency improvements of AI models ▲ the pace of capacity expansion by memory companies ▲ the speed at which Chinese corporations catch up.
Meanwhile, Bank of Korea assessed that "the impact of the Middle East war on the semiconductor cycle is limited at this stage." Despite concerns about rising oil prices and interest rates and a slowdown in global growth, it analyzed that data center construction and memory supply plans are not being significantly disrupted.
However, it added, "If the war is prolonged or escalates, the timing of verifying AI investment profitability could be moved up, or big tech's funding conditions could worsen, potentially dampening semiconductor demand."