An analysis said the Hormuz Strait blockade triggered by the Middle East war could accelerate a structural reshaping of global logistics routes beyond a simple disruption in energy supply and demand.
Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET) on the 8th released a report titled "U.S.-Iran conflict and the potential reshaping of global logistics routes."
According to the report, after the U.S. airstrike on Iran in Feb. 2026, the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz plunged from a daily average of 135 to 4, and the Middle East-Asia very large crude carrier (VLCC) freight index more than doubled from 225 to 465.5. Twenty-five percent of the world's seaborne transaction oil and about 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through the strait, and roughly 70% of Korea's crude imports go via Hormuz.
The report said the essence of this crisis lies less in the blockade itself and more in the spread of an "asymmetric attack structure" that shakes core logistics networks with inexpensive weapons. With low-cost tools such as mines and drones able to neutralize costly defense systems, it has become possible to repeatedly disrupt maritime chokepoints without full-scale war. The Nord Stream explosions (2022), the Red Sea attacks (2023), and the Hormuz blockade (2026) show this trend.
Amid this trend, the report highlighted the "India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)" as a new route to replace existing maritime logistics paths. As the traditional route through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal has faced repeated military threats, creating an entirely different path could spread the risk. IMEC is a project agreed upon at the 2023 Group of 20 (G20) summit by the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the European Union (EU), and others, and is a new logistics route combining sea and land that consolidates cargo starting in India through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel to Europe.
However, even if existing overland pipelines are combined, they fall short of a quarter of Hormuz volumes (20.9 million Barrel per day), making it difficult to fully substitute energy bulk, and it is more likely to take hold as a rapid procurement channel for high-value cargo such as semiconductors and auto parts.
The report said that unlike China's Belt and Road projects, 89% of which were exclusively awarded to Chinese corporations, IMEC's multilateral, open structure could create opportunities for participation by Korean construction, manufacturing, and logistics corporations.
The institute advised the government to "expand bilateral investment treaties with Middle Eastern countries and review a roadmap to diversify energy import sources," adding, "It is necessary to systematically pursue support measures for overseas expansion of legacy industries while keeping close watch on global logistics overhauls such as IMEC."