The Australian government has begun procedures for export restrictions in response to a domestic natural gas shortage. Still, the government judged that the short-term supply impact on Korea would not be significant.
Yang Gi-uk, Deputy Minister for Industrial Resource Security at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources, said at a Middle East situation briefing on the 2nd, "The Australian government announced the day before that it would begin procedures for export restrictions."
Australia's export restriction measure (ADGSM, Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism) is a system in operation since 2018 to stabilize domestic gas supply. Although Australia produces a large volume of gas, the government has now entered full procedures to curb the situation in which even domestically destined volumes are sold overseas due to strong international gas prices. The Australian government, in particular, projects that about 220,000 tons of gas will be short in the eastern region in the third to fourth quarters this year.
The export restrictions will not take effect immediately. The Australian government will consult for 30 days with liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers in the eastern region (GLNG, QLNG, APLNG) and make a final decision in May on whether to invoke the measure.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MOTI) expects that even if the export restriction measure is actually imposed, the impact on Korea will be limited. If the three eastern companies share the domestic gas shortfall, the effect on the Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) contracted volume would be about 30,000–40,000 tons (0.5 day's worth), which is less than a single day of contracted volume.
Deputy Minister Yang said, "The Australian side has conveyed in advance through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that it will ensure there is no impact on existing long-term contracted volumes," adding, "This measure is intended to prevent spot volumes from bypassing domestic supply and flowing overseas."
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MOTI) plans to take preemptive supply measures, including securing alternative volumes and adjusting introduction timing, depending on how the situation evolves.
Meanwhile, although U.S. President Donald Trump said in a White House address that he would continue military operations against Iran for another 2–3 weeks, the government was not expected to raise the domestic crude oil resource security alert to the highest "serious" level. The resource security alert has four levels—"attention, caution, alert, serious"—and the crude oil alert was raised to "alert" on the afternoon of the previous day.
Deputy Minister Yang said, "Even now, crude oil is not coming through Hormuz, but looking only at Hormuz, it does not appear likely that the situation will worsen much beyond the current level."