The 9th local elections are 70 days away. Attention is already focusing on the results of the local elections to be held one day before the first anniversary of President Lee Jae-myung's inauguration. Previously, Presidents Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in and Yoon Suk-yeol also held local elections around one year after taking office. In the polling industry, there is talk that "the approval ratings of the three presidents right before the local elections were reflected in the ruling party's report card."
◇ Yoon 52%·12 metropolitan mayors and governors, Moon 71%·14, Park 46%·8
The 8th local elections (June 1, 2022) were held just 22 days after President Yoon Suk-yeol took office (May 10, 2022). Right before the election (the second week of May 2022), Yoon's job approval was 52% positive and 37% negative. By contrast, at the end of Moon Jae-in's term (the third week of March 2022), his job approval stood at 42% positive and 52% negative. In this setting, the People Power Party took 12 of the 17 metropolitan mayors and governors, and the Democratic Party took 5. A polling industry official said, "By the metropolitan mayor and governor metric, the People Power Party captured 70%, which appears to reflect the combination of President Yoon's approval rating at the time (53%) and the effect of winning the presidential election."
The 7th local elections (June 13, 2018) came 1 year and 1 month after Moon Jae-in took office (May 10, 2017). They were held right after the impeachment of Park Geun-hye and the inter-Korean summit. In the third week of March 2018, Moon recorded 71% positive and 19% negative in job approval. In the election results, the Democratic Party captured 14 of the 17 metropolitan mayors and governors. The Liberty Korea Party, the predecessor to the People Power Party, secured 2. The remaining 1 was won by Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong, who had left the Bareunmirae Party, as an independent.
The 6th local elections (June 4, 2014) were held 1 year and 4 months after the launch of the Park Geun-hye administration (Feb. 25, 2013). In the third week of March 2014, Park's job approval was 56% positive and 31% negative. But two months before the election, the Sewol ferry disaster occurred. Of the 17 metropolitan mayors and governors, the Saenuri Party won 8 and the New Politics Alliance for Democracy won 9. A polling industry official said, "As of the third week of March, President Park's approval rating was 56%, but the Sewol ferry disaster became a headwind, her approval fell, and in the end it was connected to the ruling party's election defeat." In a poll in the first week of May 2014 after the Sewol ferry disaster, the positive job approval for former President Park dropped to 46%.
◇ President Lee's "9-month report card" approval at 65%, higher than previous presidents
President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating has fluctuated between 54% and 65% over the past six months. In a poll conducted by Gallup Korea on the 3rd to 5th of this month of 1,001 voters aged 18 and older nationwide, Lee's job approval was 65% positive and 25% negative. This corresponds to his 9-month report card.
Compared with the 9-month report cards of previous presidents, Lee's approval is the highest. In the second week of Feb. 2018, President Moon Jae-in recorded 63% positive and 28% negative in job approval. In the ninth month of his term (the second week of Feb. 2023), President Yoon Suk-yeol showed a low approval of 32% positive and 59% negative. In the fourth week of Nov. 2013, President Park Geun-hye received 53% positive and 33% negative.
Lee Jun-han, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Incheon, said, "In this local election, there are even projections that Seoul, Busan and Daegu, where the People Power Party holds the metropolitan mayoralties, could flip," adding, "This situation is highly correlated with President Lee's high approval rating, and the real estate issue and the Middle East situation may not have a major impact on the election."
Regarding the job approval of former President Park Geun-hye, the pre-local election poll was conducted Mar. 17–20, 2014, via random-digit dialing (RDD) with live interviewers among 1,216 men and women aged 19 and older nationwide. The poll on Park's job approval in the ninth month of her term was conducted Nov. 25–28, 2013, via RDD with live interviewers among 1,208 men and women aged 19 and older nationwide. The post–Sewol ferry disaster poll was conducted May 19–22, 2014, via RDD with live interviewers among 1,204 men and women aged 19 and older nationwide.
Regarding the job approval of former President Moon Jae-in, the pre-local election poll was conducted Mar. 20–22, 2018, via RDD with live interviewers among 1,003 men and women aged 19 and older nationwide. The poll on Moon's job approval in the ninth month of his term was conducted Feb. 6–8, 2018, via RDD with live interviewers among 1,004 men and women aged 19 and older nationwide.
Regarding the job approval of former President Yoon Suk-yeol, the pre-local election poll was conducted May 10–12, 2022, via RDD with live interviewers among 1,000 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide. The poll on Yoon's job approval in the ninth month of his term was conducted Feb. 7–9, 2023, via RDD with live interviewers among 1,002 men and women aged 19 and older nationwide.
The poll on President Lee Jae-myung's job approval in the ninth month of his term was conducted on the 3rd to 5th among 1,001 people aged 18 and older nationwide via live interviewer calls to randomly generated mobile virtual numbers. For details, refer to the National Election Commission website.