The ruling and opposition parties' math diverges over the June 3 local elections for basic council members. While the Democratic Party of Korea is aiming for a landslide in basic council races by nominating candidates in every district, the People Power Party appears to be shifting its focus from metropolitan council seats with low chances of victory to basic council posts.
The difference in mood between the two parties is evident from the preliminary candidate registration stage. According to the National Election Commission's election statistics system, as of the 19th, 1,388 people from the Democratic Party of Korea and 872 from the People Power Party had registered for basic council elections, including district, city, and county councils. Even in Daegu, considered a People Power Party stronghold, 37 Democratic Party candidates registered compared with 34 for the People Power Party.
The gap in the number of candidates is interacting with the basic council electoral system and widening strategic differences. Basic council elections are structured to allow the medium-sized district system under the Public Official Election Act, electing two to five members per district. In the 2022 local elections, about 52.6% of all districts were two-member districts (542 areas), and 42.7% were three-member districts (440). It is a structure in which the two major parties with high support can each secure two or one winners, or a single party can take all seats through multiple nominations.
In the 2018 local elections, the Democratic Party secured 1,640 basic council seats including proportional representation (56.03%), far outpacing the then Liberty Korea Party (1,009 seats, 34.47%). In the 2022 local elections, the People Power Party won 1,435 seats (48.03%), surpassing the Democratic Party (1,384 seats, 46.32%).
The Democratic Party appears set to seek revenge for its 2022 local election loss by considering an expanded nomination strategy. A political insider said, "With high (Democratic Party) approval ratings and a sharp increase in those hoping to run, the strategy is to secure as many seats as possible by fielding multiple candidates in basic council districts," adding, "There is even talk of a plan aiming for a 'clean sweep.'"
By contrast, the People Power Party appears to be struggling to secure candidates amid a relatively unfavorable race. In particular, as the view spreads that the party has low odds in head-to-head metropolitan council contests, some metropolitan council members are moving down to run for basic council seats. A People Power Party politician who served as an Incheon metropolitan council member in the 7th local elections is running for a district council seat in Yeonsu District in this election.
A People Power Party official said, "With party approval low, rather than forcing runs in metropolitan races, we are trying to secure seats through basic council elections, which have relatively lower barriers," adding, "With the mood poor ahead of the local elections, many just want to survive first."