In the June 3 local elections, the Democratic Party of Korea's chances of retaking the Busan mayor's office are growing. Since 1995, when Busan began electing its mayor by popular vote, the only time the Democratic Party produced a Busan mayor was in 2018 with former Mayor Oh Keo-don.
Looking at several opinion polls released around the Lunar New Year holiday, Chun Jae-soo, the former Minister of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries who is expected to be the Democratic Party of Korea's candidate, is shown leading Park Heong-joon, the Busan mayor from the People Power Party.
In a survey commissioned by Busan MBC to the Korea Society Opinion Institute and conducted via wireless ARS automated response on the 20th and 21st among 1,001 Busan residents aged 18 or older, Chun Jae-soo, the former Minister, recorded 43.3% in a head-to-head matchup, while Mayor Park Heong-joon had 34.6%. The result shows the former Minister leading outside the margin of error (±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level). The response rate was 5.9%. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website. Other opinion polls show similar results.
In a multi-candidate field that includes Chun Jae-soo, Park Heong-joon, Joo Jin-woo, Cho Kyung-tae, and Lee Jae-sung from both the ruling and opposition parties, the former Minister leads as well. As a sense of crisis grows that the People Power Party could lose the Busan mayoralty, some inside and outside the party are floating replacing Mayor Park Heong-joon with Rep. Joo Jin-woo or Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo as the candidate. The idea is to deploy a sitting lawmaker to play a "catfish" role to raise interest from the party primary for Busan mayor and to strengthen competitiveness in the general election.
The mood is favorable for the Democratic Party, but there are also unspoken concerns among Democratic figures in Busan. It is the possibility of a sudden appearance by former President Moon Jae-in.
During the 2024 general election, the Democratic Party once went through turmoil due to the former president's appearance. At the time, Moon Jae-in broke his stance of wanting to be forgotten after retirement and joined campaign rallies to support Democratic Party candidates running in the so-called "Nakdong River Belt," including Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang. However, among the Democratic Party candidates who received Moon's support, only two won their badges: Kim Tae-seon (Ulsan Dong District) and Huh Sung-moo (Changwon Seongsan, South Gyeongsang).
A Democratic Party official said, "There was a lot of analysis that the former president's support rallies only had the effect of rallying conservatives," adding, "Without the former president's support rallies, given the mood at the time, we could have taken five more seats in 'PK.'"
This mood is continuing into this local election. The Democratic Party is wary of a conservative rallying trend in Busan. Although the former Minister holds a comfortable lead, if the Democratic Party appears poised to sweep other metropolitan mayor and governor posts, the mood could shift to choosing a conservative for Busan mayor.
On top of that, if the former president appears, conservatives in Busan who had turned away from the election could unite, according to analyses. A political figure in the Busan region said, "After former President Yoon Suk-yeol's martial law and impeachment, quite a few conservative voters have kept their distance from politics, and whether they come together again is the key to the Busan election," adding, "If the former president steps in, wouldn't that be a boon for the People Power Party rather than the Democratic Party?"