With the Bank of Korea (BOK) set to release its revised economic outlook on the 26th, it is expected to raise this year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast from the previous 1.8%. Experts expect the BOK to present a growth outlook of 1.9% to 2.1%.
A survey of 10 economic experts by ChosunBiz on the 22nd found that all of them expected the Bank of Korea (BOK) to raise this year's growth forecast. Their view is that the increase will range from 0.1 percentage point (p) to as much as 0.3 percentage point (p). The main driver is rising exports.
Park Sung-hyun, an iM Securities researcher, said, "Exports have been strong and corporations' profits have surged on the back of the semiconductor supercycle." Last year, Samsung Electronics posted 333.6059 trillion won in revenue, a record high, and it is expected to perform well this year too.
Over the past month, securities firms have estimated Samsung Electronics' first-quarter operating profit at 32.5305 trillion won. That is up 386.6% from the same period a year earlier (6.6853 trillion won). The first-quarter operating profit forecast for SK hynix is also 28.2892 trillion won, up 280.2% from the same period a year earlier (7.4405 trillion won). Kim Sung-soo, a researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities, said, "Considering the prolonged semiconductor cycle, there is a strong possibility the growth outlook will be revised upward."
In a statement from the monetary policy decision on Feb. 15, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said, "This year's growth is expected to be broadly in line with the November forecast (1.8%)." It added, "We judge that upside risks have somewhat increased due to a broader upturn in the semiconductor cycle and better-than-expected growth in major economies."
If the Bank of Korea (BOK) raises this year's outlook to 1.9%, it would match the views of the Korea Development Institute (KDI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). If it goes to 2%, it would align with the government's forecast. For Korea's growth this year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projected 2.2%, and eight major investment banks (IBs) projected 2.1%.
Meanwhile, ahead of the Bank of Korea (BOK)'s first economic outlook of the year, a shift in U.S. policy on reciprocal tariffs is a notable factor. U.S. President Donald Trump on Feb. 21 (local time) said he would impose a 15% tariff on imports from all countries worldwide in defiance of the Supreme Court, which ruled reciprocal tariffs illegal. Trump wrote on his social media platform "Truth Social," "(The Supreme Court ruling is) an extremely anti-American tariff decision."