A forecast says Korea's job growth will effectively halt from 2024 to 2034. The analysis notes that labor supply will shrink because of low births and an aging population, and that the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) will accelerate an industrial restructuring.
According to the "Medium- to long-term labor supply and demand outlook and additional required workforce outlook" that the Korea Employment Information Service released on the 11th, the average annual growth rate of the number of employed from 2024 to 2034 is expected to be 0%. In effect, employment is entering a stagnation phase.
The employment information service projected that the number of employed will increase by a total of 64,000 during the period. It estimated an increase of 367,000 through 2029, followed by a decrease of 303,000 after 2030.
An official at the employment information service said, "Due to the effects of low births and an aging population, the economically active population (ages 15–64) will shift into a full-fledged decline starting in 2030," and added, "The spread of AI technology will fundamentally change the structure of labor demand by industry and occupation."
◇ Increase in employment in social welfare and health care; decline in wholesale and retail and automobile manufacturing
By industry, employment demand is expected to rise sharply in social welfare (692,000) and health care (29,000) due to aging and growing care needs. Fields closely tied to AI and digital transformation, such as research and development and computer programming, are also projected to add 58,000 and 55,000 jobs, respectively.
In contrast, employment in retail is projected to fall by 290,000 as consumption shifts toward online and platforms. Declines are also expected in wholesale (121,000) and food and drinking places (88,000). General construction (95,000) and specialized construction (104,000) are likewise expected to see fewer jobs due to demographic changes and weaker construction demand. Employment in automobile manufacturing is also projected to decrease by 71,000 because of the shift to eco-friendly vehicles and the adoption of AI technology.
By occupation, demand is expected to expand for health service workers, health professionals, engineering professionals, and information and communications professionals. In contrast, jobs such as in-store sales and plant and machine operators, which are heavily affected by AI-based automation and online transitions, are expected to continue a structural decline.
Meanwhile, to achieve an economic growth rate of 2% in 2034, an additional 1,222,000 workers will be needed, the analysis found. Additional labor demand is expected not only in health and welfare but also in manufacturing and wholesale and retail.
The Ministry of Employment and Labor (MOEL) said, "While labor force participation is expected to rise across all age groups, the constraints on labor supply from low births and an aging population could lead to a decrease in the number of employed," and added, "If participation increases among groups with low participation rates, it could partially lift the number of employed."