As Jung Chung-rae, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, proposed a merger with the Rebuilding Korea Party, questions are being raised that the power landscape within the ruling bloc could be shaken. With the political calendar moving through the June 3 local elections, parliamentary by-elections, and the party convention in Aug., analysts say the variable of a broader ruling-bloc integration is surfacing early, which could clearly divide the gains and losses of key figures.
Inside the Democratic Party, confusion continues as more than 30 lawmakers, including non-leadership Supreme Council members, publicly criticized Jung's sudden merger proposal, but if the merger process is successfully concluded, it would gain the symbolism of unifying the progressive camp.
Further, it could lay the groundwork for victory in the local elections, which is tied to Jung's political fate. If it leads to a local election win, observers say Jung would likely secure an advantageous position at the Aug. party convention, where nominations for the 2028 general election are at stake. Jung's renewed push to introduce a one-person, one-vote system also aligns with this calculation.
On the other hand, if the merger falls through, Jung could suffer significant political damage. As Supreme Council member Lee Un-ju objected to Jung's merger proposal and said, "It is only right to ask (party members) about the leader's future," the debate over responsibility is expected to intensify.
Cho Kuk, leader of the Rebuilding Korea Party, who accepted talks on a merger, also faces diverging fortunes depending on success or failure. The reform party is the third-largest in the Assembly, but its approval rating remains in the 2% to 4% range, and if it fails to deliver results in the local elections, questions about its viability could arise. In this situation, if it merges with the Democratic Party, it could lessen the burden of responsibility for the local elections and create a favorable environment for Cho's own candidacy and nominations.
Conversely, if merger talks are delayed and then collapse, both the reform party, whose election preparations would be disrupted, and Cho could suffer major setbacks. The background to Cho's cautious stance, saying, "I will answer after the Democratic Party finishes its discussions," reflects such concerns.
Prime Minister Kim Min-seok is also not free from the fallout of the merger talks. With the Aug. party convention as a turning point, there is talk of Kim running for party leader and returning to Yeouido. If Jung achieves political results through the merger and the local elections, Kim's footing could relatively narrow, but conversely, if turmoil grows or the election performance is poor, Kim's standing within the party could be strengthened.
Of course, given Kim's political footing, many assess that his card to return to the party remains valid regardless of the local election results. Depending on the circumstances, some even predict that Kim's return to Yeouido could be moved up.